TOI 18th February 2011 |http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Muslims-left-behind-in-Gujarats-growth-story/articleshow/7518871.cms
The Hindu: 13th February 2011 |http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/article1448215.ece
New York Times [Related story] |http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/12/business/global/12food.html?pagewanted=2&_r=2&ref=global-home
Friday, February 18, 2011
Monday, January 31, 2011
Failure of the Group Specific Equity Policy: - the case of the Scheduled Tribes
An opportunity to get a ring side view and observe, assess and evaluate public polices is rare. I was fortunate, as a member of a Committee to assess the situation in Andhra Pradesh, visited many tribal and primitive communities during 2010. Overall, close to 9% of India’s population are the STs, over 700 - highly diverse communities are notified under Article 342 of the constitution of India; of these 75 are ‘primitive tribal groups (PTGs)’.
Consider a village in Vijanagaram district with two distinct tribes living side-by-side - Kondavara, a non-primitive tribe and Savara, a primitive tribe. The Kondavara reported some cultivation rights over half an acre to three acres of rain fed land on the hilly terrain but with no clear land title. Fortunately all 81 households were covered under the MG-NREGS with Rs.100 as wage, and worked on land improvement on their plantations in a cooperative basis. It was common to find Kondavara’s seek wage employment in the nearby plains as well and also participated in market exchange.
Whereas the Savara being a PTG were under the control of ‘integrated tribal development authority’ ITDA. They were provided with employment on daily fixed wages to work in the forest, but only for limited number of days in a year. According to the Savara’s the MG-NREGS wages offered worked out to be less than Rs. 20 per day and therefore they were disillusioned this work offer. The private wage this community got in the village was as low as Rs. 70 for males and Rs. 40 for females. They rear small ruminants and cattle. Savara’s rarely traveled to outside areas and their marriage linkages were found to be within a 10 Kms range and amongst their own tribe. Although some land on the hills was assigned to them, they did not report a clear ownership and land was unfit for cultivation of cereals.
A contrasting differentiation of these communities was physical location of their living quarters. The non-primitive tribes occupied a street horizontally with relatively better housing. The Savara’s, on the other hand lived in homes built vertically, climbing up on the rocky terrain towards the hills. This street was full of rocks exposed due to the rain water gushing vertically through the street. It was not easy to climb up to homes on the higher end even for well built men let alone women and children. There was hardly a dwelling which looked neat and tidy as was the case in the horizontal street.
Another visit was to a tribal village cluster in Prakasam district - a resettlement of the Chenchu’s, Yerakala and Sugali, all primitive tribe from within the forest; and the other a cluster of non-primitive communities. The ITDA could provide one acre of land to about half of the resettled primitive families and also semi-finished single room residential quarters, but without a kitchen and toilet in them. The resettlement had drinking water facility and also electricity. Men undertook bamboo cutting and honey collection under the government program, women also collected minor forest produce such as medicinal herbs and roots. This settlement was serviced by a Girjan Society (GCC) which purchased the forest produce for a predetermined price, and were also covered under the PDS. We also found girls and boys educated and trained to become teachers but with without any jobs.
The neighborhood settlement was occupied by non-primitive inhabitants living there since long. This settlement was bereft of facilities and services available to the resettlement. Women from this settlement were not allowed to collect the minor forest produce therefore they were in basket making; while men ventured getting bamboo on the sly from the forest. Most of men were reported to be under lockup for having taken bamboo from the forest. Neither the state government agencies nor the ITDA have covered this settlement for the provisioning of welfare schemes, nor were programs such as the MG-NREGA and SHG. To my understanding this bunch of 23 households had in fact no identity and lived a highly vulnerable and deprived life.
The above examples present highly contrasting scenarios. The primitive tribes in spite of the presence of ITDA were found to be extremely vulnerable compared with the non-primitive groups in first example; where as in the latter case it was the non-primitive group which was found to be at the verge of penury. The origin of such differentiation is due to policy as well implimentative shortcomings with respect to the primitive and non-primitive tribes residing in the same location. How, why and who make these sharper differentiation between the communities and for what purpose is not very clear. However, in the first example, the freedom and choice that the non-primitive group had, so as to travel and visit the plain areas for work and market appears to have empowered them. In the second example, since the primitive groups were resettled from within the forest they were showered with a number of benefits while the original dwellers in the same location were left to fend for themselves and in fact found to be victimized.
Overall, the ST areas suffer from provisioning of basic services such as education, health and employment. Even the ST hostels for girls were found not having running water and the adolescent girls were seen using brooks and streams nearby for their daily routine, bathing and washing. While qualified girls and boys belonging to primitive tribes remain unemployed, all government functionaries including the teachers were non-STs commuting from plain areas on work. They were seen travelling on a daily basis to the work place on their ultramodern expensive motorcycles; and many inaccessible locations are bereft of institutions and personnel.
It is important to state that these are the areas covered under the ‘Schedule 5’ policy established in 1950 which is directly overseen by the Governor of the state with the help of the ‘tribal advisory councils.’ The STs are easy to identify and live in clusters of their own and policies to effect group equity should be easy to implement. But the reality is otherwise; it gives an impression that government is running an enterprise, with bonded PTGs which can be subject to ‘bonded labor laws’. It also appears, in the name of protecting these communities; opportunities are denied for them to access the fruits of the modern development.
Consider a village in Vijanagaram district with two distinct tribes living side-by-side - Kondavara, a non-primitive tribe and Savara, a primitive tribe. The Kondavara reported some cultivation rights over half an acre to three acres of rain fed land on the hilly terrain but with no clear land title. Fortunately all 81 households were covered under the MG-NREGS with Rs.100 as wage, and worked on land improvement on their plantations in a cooperative basis. It was common to find Kondavara’s seek wage employment in the nearby plains as well and also participated in market exchange.
Whereas the Savara being a PTG were under the control of ‘integrated tribal development authority’ ITDA. They were provided with employment on daily fixed wages to work in the forest, but only for limited number of days in a year. According to the Savara’s the MG-NREGS wages offered worked out to be less than Rs. 20 per day and therefore they were disillusioned this work offer. The private wage this community got in the village was as low as Rs. 70 for males and Rs. 40 for females. They rear small ruminants and cattle. Savara’s rarely traveled to outside areas and their marriage linkages were found to be within a 10 Kms range and amongst their own tribe. Although some land on the hills was assigned to them, they did not report a clear ownership and land was unfit for cultivation of cereals.
A contrasting differentiation of these communities was physical location of their living quarters. The non-primitive tribes occupied a street horizontally with relatively better housing. The Savara’s, on the other hand lived in homes built vertically, climbing up on the rocky terrain towards the hills. This street was full of rocks exposed due to the rain water gushing vertically through the street. It was not easy to climb up to homes on the higher end even for well built men let alone women and children. There was hardly a dwelling which looked neat and tidy as was the case in the horizontal street.
Another visit was to a tribal village cluster in Prakasam district - a resettlement of the Chenchu’s, Yerakala and Sugali, all primitive tribe from within the forest; and the other a cluster of non-primitive communities. The ITDA could provide one acre of land to about half of the resettled primitive families and also semi-finished single room residential quarters, but without a kitchen and toilet in them. The resettlement had drinking water facility and also electricity. Men undertook bamboo cutting and honey collection under the government program, women also collected minor forest produce such as medicinal herbs and roots. This settlement was serviced by a Girjan Society (GCC) which purchased the forest produce for a predetermined price, and were also covered under the PDS. We also found girls and boys educated and trained to become teachers but with without any jobs.
The neighborhood settlement was occupied by non-primitive inhabitants living there since long. This settlement was bereft of facilities and services available to the resettlement. Women from this settlement were not allowed to collect the minor forest produce therefore they were in basket making; while men ventured getting bamboo on the sly from the forest. Most of men were reported to be under lockup for having taken bamboo from the forest. Neither the state government agencies nor the ITDA have covered this settlement for the provisioning of welfare schemes, nor were programs such as the MG-NREGA and SHG. To my understanding this bunch of 23 households had in fact no identity and lived a highly vulnerable and deprived life.
The above examples present highly contrasting scenarios. The primitive tribes in spite of the presence of ITDA were found to be extremely vulnerable compared with the non-primitive groups in first example; where as in the latter case it was the non-primitive group which was found to be at the verge of penury. The origin of such differentiation is due to policy as well implimentative shortcomings with respect to the primitive and non-primitive tribes residing in the same location. How, why and who make these sharper differentiation between the communities and for what purpose is not very clear. However, in the first example, the freedom and choice that the non-primitive group had, so as to travel and visit the plain areas for work and market appears to have empowered them. In the second example, since the primitive groups were resettled from within the forest they were showered with a number of benefits while the original dwellers in the same location were left to fend for themselves and in fact found to be victimized.
Overall, the ST areas suffer from provisioning of basic services such as education, health and employment. Even the ST hostels for girls were found not having running water and the adolescent girls were seen using brooks and streams nearby for their daily routine, bathing and washing. While qualified girls and boys belonging to primitive tribes remain unemployed, all government functionaries including the teachers were non-STs commuting from plain areas on work. They were seen travelling on a daily basis to the work place on their ultramodern expensive motorcycles; and many inaccessible locations are bereft of institutions and personnel.
It is important to state that these are the areas covered under the ‘Schedule 5’ policy established in 1950 which is directly overseen by the Governor of the state with the help of the ‘tribal advisory councils.’ The STs are easy to identify and live in clusters of their own and policies to effect group equity should be easy to implement. But the reality is otherwise; it gives an impression that government is running an enterprise, with bonded PTGs which can be subject to ‘bonded labor laws’. It also appears, in the name of protecting these communities; opportunities are denied for them to access the fruits of the modern development.
Friday, January 21, 2011
Poverty a Mystery in the Land of the Poor!
A number of controversies are raging concurrently on size and nature of poverty and the ongoing unprecedented (food) inflation is adding fuel to this fury.
The official poverty estimate has gone through change due to change in methodology and cut offs for the second time in last 12 years or so. Be aware, therefore, it not now easy to compare poverty estimates over time and therefore all are in dark as to how many of we Indians are poor and who are they? Should one continue with the original definitions of poverty and methodology set in mid-1970s, there would not be many poor left in India! Therefore, the recent revision of the poverty line aligned with the urban levels of consumption is the saving grace; and rural poverty is estimated to be about 37.2% for the year 2004-5. The official poverty line is the rupee value which can purchase the minimum benchmarked amount of calories needed for sustenance which is in fact higher for rural and lower for urban areas. However, the anomaly is that it takes relatively more amount of rupees to buy the same amount of calories in urban area possibly due to price difference. It is not clear if any adjustments for these differences are made in the new poverty line suggested by Tendulkar Committee. Yet when the food intake (which is the primary basis for fixing the poverty line) and associated calories are measured using the same data source (NSSO) up to 70% of the population is estimated to be vulnerable and in a number states such as Orissa, Bihar, Jharkhand and so on this proportion can be as high as 90%. Thus it is not only difficult but impossible to understand the objective criteria used to benchmark the poverty estimates without an empirical multi-vulnerability analysis.
A as a matter of routine the state governments in association with the national ministry of rural development undertake ‘below poverty line’ (BPL) surveys at about 5 years of interval to identify deserving households for service delivery. Earlier these surveys used a list of 13 characteristics which highlight vulnerability and arrived at estimates comparable to those based on calorie intake deficiencies.
Currently, efforts are on through a committee to refine these variables using the ‘exclusionary’ and ‘inclusionary’ criteria. This refinement seems necessary firstly to remove the deficiency of the13 variable surveys and secondly to arrive at a compromise level of poverty estimates between the official national and state estimates. While a refinement in this method is essential what is debatable is the subjective elements inherent in identifying a set of variables for exclusion and another set for inclusion. Further score values are assigned to the variables of inclusion with little empirical basis however. Unlike in the past now the local level functionaries have to grapple with not one but two lists, one of exclusion and another of inclusion and then assigned scores, all at the local level. Further, during direct questioning for the sake of BPL identification will be highly politicised, contentious and problematic. For example, it will not be easy to find out who are the income tax payers are as this information not public knowledge; similarly identifying ‘person owning a fire arm’ will be as difficult as facing one who owns it. It is argued that many of the variables listed including the two mentioned above are not expected to be statistically significant and therefore empirically irrelevant relevant should the identification of the variables is undertaken using time tested and transparent methods. The subjective variable scoring scheme will be politically not acceptable either.
There is another factors relevant in this methodology is capping of poverty level, arbitrarily at 50% level. As is well known a cap at the policy level is always taken forward upto the block, panchayat and even village levels and thus whole communities will be at risk of being eliminated from being identified as the poor; not because of any defect but just by a sheer application of quota and the overriding execution of local community level politics which can easily exclude the marginal groups such as the SCs, STs, Muslims and other minorities. The proposed methods also ignore the fact that the variation in poverty extends upto the village and even sub-village levels due to unique residential pattern in which the marginalized are forced to live in peripheral locations around the village. Often such localities are entirely excluded from the ambit of program implementation on various pretexts by the local functionaries and supportive political system.
Is it possible to put forth an empirical methods which can identify dispassionately using location (geographic identity) specific factors that can be used a check list. A larger survey data can be used to identify a list of factors and this list can be used as a check list during the village level surveys. This method removes subjectivity at another level; at the level of identifying the target household. Since the check list is predetermined at say each district or taluka level, the identification errors will be minimal.
A multi-vulnerability identification exercise for rural India provides the following list of variables which exhibit source of opulence or vulnerability accordingly. These variables are empirically identified as the dominant factors with various degree of vulnerability. Using this as a check list one can with a high degree of certainty and in a dispassionate manner estimate a value to each household, and also arrange in an order of priority. Thus all such households within in a defined area can be stacked one over another depending upon the total severity of vulnerability and thus easy to identify who of the two households deserve social services, a very important attribute if limited resources are to be distributed. This kind of assigning of intensity of vulnerability is impossible in the method currently being considered. However, the alternate empirical approach in fact helps in placing a given household at an appropriate location in the ‘economic ladder’ and helps clearly identify who are the at the bottom, middle and at the top end of the economic wellbeing. Thus it eliminates an important defect in present system of categorising households only in two groups namely the poor and the rich.
The functionaries, therefore, can prepare location specific common list for practically all such programs which are intend to help the deprived and poor households, and programs can be aligned with commonly accepted benchmarks in terms of the quantum of services either in cash or in kind. In fact one can also conceive a gradation of such services depending upon the severity of the household as expressed in the value of vulnerability estimated in this method. Given a baseline survey, such as the NSSO, the NFHS and Human Development Surveys, it is easy to give the list of these variables upto the district and even lower administrative levels.
Exclusionary Attributes:
HH who receive income from regular salaried and organised sector employment;
Residential Living Density – more than 0.5 room per person (excluding kitchen)
HH Owning any of these items : – tube well, electric/diesel pump / tractor / biogas plant
HH owing a diesel / petrol driven vehicles such as car, motor cycle, scooter
HH who owns a Refrigerator or Colour Television
Inclusionary Attributes:
Household Head not educated upto 8th standard
SCs, STs and BC-Muslim households
HHs not using LPG, Kerosene, Cooking coal for cooking
Households having MG-NREGA job cards
HH with a sick person as indicated in a pre-approved list
The official poverty estimate has gone through change due to change in methodology and cut offs for the second time in last 12 years or so. Be aware, therefore, it not now easy to compare poverty estimates over time and therefore all are in dark as to how many of we Indians are poor and who are they? Should one continue with the original definitions of poverty and methodology set in mid-1970s, there would not be many poor left in India! Therefore, the recent revision of the poverty line aligned with the urban levels of consumption is the saving grace; and rural poverty is estimated to be about 37.2% for the year 2004-5. The official poverty line is the rupee value which can purchase the minimum benchmarked amount of calories needed for sustenance which is in fact higher for rural and lower for urban areas. However, the anomaly is that it takes relatively more amount of rupees to buy the same amount of calories in urban area possibly due to price difference. It is not clear if any adjustments for these differences are made in the new poverty line suggested by Tendulkar Committee. Yet when the food intake (which is the primary basis for fixing the poverty line) and associated calories are measured using the same data source (NSSO) up to 70% of the population is estimated to be vulnerable and in a number states such as Orissa, Bihar, Jharkhand and so on this proportion can be as high as 90%. Thus it is not only difficult but impossible to understand the objective criteria used to benchmark the poverty estimates without an empirical multi-vulnerability analysis.
A as a matter of routine the state governments in association with the national ministry of rural development undertake ‘below poverty line’ (BPL) surveys at about 5 years of interval to identify deserving households for service delivery. Earlier these surveys used a list of 13 characteristics which highlight vulnerability and arrived at estimates comparable to those based on calorie intake deficiencies.
Currently, efforts are on through a committee to refine these variables using the ‘exclusionary’ and ‘inclusionary’ criteria. This refinement seems necessary firstly to remove the deficiency of the13 variable surveys and secondly to arrive at a compromise level of poverty estimates between the official national and state estimates. While a refinement in this method is essential what is debatable is the subjective elements inherent in identifying a set of variables for exclusion and another set for inclusion. Further score values are assigned to the variables of inclusion with little empirical basis however. Unlike in the past now the local level functionaries have to grapple with not one but two lists, one of exclusion and another of inclusion and then assigned scores, all at the local level. Further, during direct questioning for the sake of BPL identification will be highly politicised, contentious and problematic. For example, it will not be easy to find out who are the income tax payers are as this information not public knowledge; similarly identifying ‘person owning a fire arm’ will be as difficult as facing one who owns it. It is argued that many of the variables listed including the two mentioned above are not expected to be statistically significant and therefore empirically irrelevant relevant should the identification of the variables is undertaken using time tested and transparent methods. The subjective variable scoring scheme will be politically not acceptable either.
There is another factors relevant in this methodology is capping of poverty level, arbitrarily at 50% level. As is well known a cap at the policy level is always taken forward upto the block, panchayat and even village levels and thus whole communities will be at risk of being eliminated from being identified as the poor; not because of any defect but just by a sheer application of quota and the overriding execution of local community level politics which can easily exclude the marginal groups such as the SCs, STs, Muslims and other minorities. The proposed methods also ignore the fact that the variation in poverty extends upto the village and even sub-village levels due to unique residential pattern in which the marginalized are forced to live in peripheral locations around the village. Often such localities are entirely excluded from the ambit of program implementation on various pretexts by the local functionaries and supportive political system.
Is it possible to put forth an empirical methods which can identify dispassionately using location (geographic identity) specific factors that can be used a check list. A larger survey data can be used to identify a list of factors and this list can be used as a check list during the village level surveys. This method removes subjectivity at another level; at the level of identifying the target household. Since the check list is predetermined at say each district or taluka level, the identification errors will be minimal.
A multi-vulnerability identification exercise for rural India provides the following list of variables which exhibit source of opulence or vulnerability accordingly. These variables are empirically identified as the dominant factors with various degree of vulnerability. Using this as a check list one can with a high degree of certainty and in a dispassionate manner estimate a value to each household, and also arrange in an order of priority. Thus all such households within in a defined area can be stacked one over another depending upon the total severity of vulnerability and thus easy to identify who of the two households deserve social services, a very important attribute if limited resources are to be distributed. This kind of assigning of intensity of vulnerability is impossible in the method currently being considered. However, the alternate empirical approach in fact helps in placing a given household at an appropriate location in the ‘economic ladder’ and helps clearly identify who are the at the bottom, middle and at the top end of the economic wellbeing. Thus it eliminates an important defect in present system of categorising households only in two groups namely the poor and the rich.
The functionaries, therefore, can prepare location specific common list for practically all such programs which are intend to help the deprived and poor households, and programs can be aligned with commonly accepted benchmarks in terms of the quantum of services either in cash or in kind. In fact one can also conceive a gradation of such services depending upon the severity of the household as expressed in the value of vulnerability estimated in this method. Given a baseline survey, such as the NSSO, the NFHS and Human Development Surveys, it is easy to give the list of these variables upto the district and even lower administrative levels.
Exclusionary Attributes:
HH who receive income from regular salaried and organised sector employment;
Residential Living Density – more than 0.5 room per person (excluding kitchen)
HH Owning any of these items : – tube well, electric/diesel pump / tractor / biogas plant
HH owing a diesel / petrol driven vehicles such as car, motor cycle, scooter
HH who owns a Refrigerator or Colour Television
Inclusionary Attributes:
Household Head not educated upto 8th standard
SCs, STs and BC-Muslim households
HHs not using LPG, Kerosene, Cooking coal for cooking
Households having MG-NREGA job cards
HH with a sick person as indicated in a pre-approved list
Download GOI Committee Reports
Government of India Committee Reports:
On Andhra Pradesh: http://mha.nic.in/pdfs/CCSAP-REPORT-060111.pdf
On Muslims in India: http://minorityaffairs.gov.in/newsite/sachar/sachar_comm.pdf
On Andhra Pradesh: http://mha.nic.in/pdfs/CCSAP-REPORT-060111.pdf
On Muslims in India: http://minorityaffairs.gov.in/newsite/sachar/sachar_comm.pdf
Monday, January 10, 2011
The Economic Paradigm and National Integration
The paradigm of economic and social development in India has evolved from the socialistic pattern to the one of openness and private-public partnership. Ideologically socialistic performance of the government soon after the Independence ensured that private corporate and other vested interest could not appropriate national resources such that the masses could have been adversely affected. Although the trigger happy economic evangelists do abuse the older economic system, what should be recognized at the time of the Independence, fresh with the influence of Gandhian thought and preaching, there could not have been any other choice to socialistic thought, at that time promoting a sense of equality although the sense of ownership was non-existent; excepting the relief that the Government has control over them, and that they are safe and not looted. The Nehurivian concerns therefore during the first few decades after Independence in my view were not only relevant but necessary.
However, a reminiscence of the process of development in India, invokes a considerable amount of satisfaction that India indeed has gone through a process of transformation from the license raj to opening up towards promoting private initiatives to exploit resources, in a way at the right time although such a change was forced upon due to the technocratic and purely fiscal prudence. Thus the recognition and promotion of the private initiative in development as a policy response to fast growth is commendable. Yet it is necessary to ponder upon as what kind of lopsided development and growth can occur should the government begin to absolve the role of the ‘trustee’ of the national and natural resources, while the private sector engulfed with the forces of free economy and competition penetrates to such economic dominions which were thus far insulated from exploitation, mostly due to lack of demand and largely due to lack of investments which governments could not bring.
Therefore, the economic process which are private but in principle endorsed by the public systems which also claim to be the so called ‘inclusive’ can damage the very fabric of nation hood and nation building. The economy and markets must operate and indeed promote the concept of nation hood and promote national integration, while making profits through exploiting local natural and human resources and adding value to the GDP.
Two pronged policies for growth and national interest are suggested, (a) an inclusive economic penetration and (b) a social framework which promotes equity and participation.
1. Integration inernally not outwardly: It is common to find that in the name of national integration one finds mass movements of people from mainstream areas in India to the periphery. This can happen in organized manner such as through government employment, movement of security forces to peripheral states; or this can happen due to market forces where both people and products penetrate into the periphery regions such as hill areas, north eastern states and so on.
Development orientation must ensure that the people and products from the periphery find a place in the mainland public, private and market spaces. This approach will not only bring progress in the deprived peripheral areas but also a high degree of national integration.
2. Identify and Cherish Cultural Values: Another strong mechanism through which national integration can take place is by identifying (cataloging) and promoting through recognition and appreciation social values, customs and practices from amongst the deprived and peripheral geographic areas and communities which can do beneficial to the mainland geography and communities. Such an approach may even be necessary to address a number of MDG goals such as child bearing and raring practices, gender relations (for example widow remarriage, woman’s inheritance and ownership rights and so on),
3. Promotion of Multiple Language Education: It is essential that along with the national and regional languages, mother tongue and international languages such as English are promoted through formal schooling. Currently there is hardly any importance give to provide primary education in mother tongue. Besides, access to English language is not found in publically provided schools and taking advantage this is done of private schooling but at a high cost and that too for a poor quality education. This anomaly in medium of instructions must be eliminated on an urgent basis. Arguments such as children will be burdened with too many languages are not adequate enough; to deny primary education in mother tongue and also English (other foreign languages) education.
4. Fund Translation of Literature in a New Language: Another strategy which can bind the nation together is to undertake massive efforts, to translate major compendiums of socio-cultural, historical and literary value into to multiple languages. This should not be from only one or two languages, rather from all other languages (including peripheral) to mainstream languages. This will be an excellent way to promote mutual respect to pluralistic value systems which prevail in India.
However, a reminiscence of the process of development in India, invokes a considerable amount of satisfaction that India indeed has gone through a process of transformation from the license raj to opening up towards promoting private initiatives to exploit resources, in a way at the right time although such a change was forced upon due to the technocratic and purely fiscal prudence. Thus the recognition and promotion of the private initiative in development as a policy response to fast growth is commendable. Yet it is necessary to ponder upon as what kind of lopsided development and growth can occur should the government begin to absolve the role of the ‘trustee’ of the national and natural resources, while the private sector engulfed with the forces of free economy and competition penetrates to such economic dominions which were thus far insulated from exploitation, mostly due to lack of demand and largely due to lack of investments which governments could not bring.
Therefore, the economic process which are private but in principle endorsed by the public systems which also claim to be the so called ‘inclusive’ can damage the very fabric of nation hood and nation building. The economy and markets must operate and indeed promote the concept of nation hood and promote national integration, while making profits through exploiting local natural and human resources and adding value to the GDP.
Two pronged policies for growth and national interest are suggested, (a) an inclusive economic penetration and (b) a social framework which promotes equity and participation.
1. Integration inernally not outwardly: It is common to find that in the name of national integration one finds mass movements of people from mainstream areas in India to the periphery. This can happen in organized manner such as through government employment, movement of security forces to peripheral states; or this can happen due to market forces where both people and products penetrate into the periphery regions such as hill areas, north eastern states and so on.
Development orientation must ensure that the people and products from the periphery find a place in the mainland public, private and market spaces. This approach will not only bring progress in the deprived peripheral areas but also a high degree of national integration.
2. Identify and Cherish Cultural Values: Another strong mechanism through which national integration can take place is by identifying (cataloging) and promoting through recognition and appreciation social values, customs and practices from amongst the deprived and peripheral geographic areas and communities which can do beneficial to the mainland geography and communities. Such an approach may even be necessary to address a number of MDG goals such as child bearing and raring practices, gender relations (for example widow remarriage, woman’s inheritance and ownership rights and so on),
3. Promotion of Multiple Language Education: It is essential that along with the national and regional languages, mother tongue and international languages such as English are promoted through formal schooling. Currently there is hardly any importance give to provide primary education in mother tongue. Besides, access to English language is not found in publically provided schools and taking advantage this is done of private schooling but at a high cost and that too for a poor quality education. This anomaly in medium of instructions must be eliminated on an urgent basis. Arguments such as children will be burdened with too many languages are not adequate enough; to deny primary education in mother tongue and also English (other foreign languages) education.
4. Fund Translation of Literature in a New Language: Another strategy which can bind the nation together is to undertake massive efforts, to translate major compendiums of socio-cultural, historical and literary value into to multiple languages. This should not be from only one or two languages, rather from all other languages (including peripheral) to mainstream languages. This will be an excellent way to promote mutual respect to pluralistic value systems which prevail in India.
Sunday, October 10, 2010
India Vision 2050
The world is experiencing unprecedented technologically aided changes leading to broad based growth and development. How will India benefit from these changes to improve its economic and social progress; say by the middle of the 21st century is worth pondering over.
The structure of global competitive economy was such that India was the seventh largest in terms of volume of output at the time of its Independence. The British popularly identified India as the ‘jewel in the crown’. India during the medieval period was one of the largest economics and in league with China and Europe. The desire to exploit the riches from India was so great that Christopher Columbus’s voyage in an effort to find an easy sea route for trade moved westerly and discovered the Americas instead. Yet at the time India became Independent, not only two-thirds Indians were unable to fend for two square meals a day, but also that it hosted the world’s largest pool of poor and illiterate population. Although, India still hosts the world’s largest pool of the poor, proportionately poverty has declined substantially. Using a standard methodology for comparisons over time, one can argue that proportion of the poor in India is around 30%, in spite of the population almost doubling to doubling to 1130 million since the Independence. In absolute numbers however, about 350 million citizens are still poor, comparable to those existed during 1950s.
Since the mid-1980s, especially after 1991 India reformed its economic policies and striving to achieve new benchmarks, recording a robust GDP growth rate averaging close to 7.5 % over the last decade and even touching 10% during the recent quarters. Further, there are noteworthy improvements in literacy, life expectancy, infant and child mortality and other human development parameters; broad based public policies are in place so as to reach out to the deprived and hitherto excluded communities such as the Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes and religious minorities.
But the puzzle remains in the structure of the economy and sectoral shares of GDP. Early after the Independence over 60% of labor force was generating more than 50% of GDP from Agricultural and allied activities; but by about 2010 only 17% of GDP is generated with over 55% of labor force trapped in it. In recent years less than 20% of labor force is generating closer to 60% of GDP from services suggesting a technology intensive but labor replacing growth. The Industrial sector has grown in absolute terms but unable to improve its share in GDP of around a quarter and absorbing a similar share of labor. Such a growth trajectory can be devastating, since demographically by 2050, India will be the largest country in the world with a population of over 1.6 billion and a billion labor force. Compare this with China’s projected population at 1.4 billion and the next largest USA with just over 400 million by 2050.
The key is in the ‘capital stock’ a country would own, which is broadly referred to as that part of national wealth which is reproducible consisting of all resources contributing to the production of goods and services. This is an indicator of the capacity for investments determining future growth prospects. India is striving to ensure that real net capital stock is sustained which is about 252 per cent of the GDP, but this ratio is just about 50% in the US and 120% in Japan. In terms of per capita capital stock, in 2009, Japan tops with US$47711 followed by the USA at US$18708 and a meager amount of just about US$1500 in India. Thus India, while exhibits strength of the emerging economy so far as the capital stock is measured relative to its GDP, but in per capita terms it is far too low. Therefore, India’s future economic growth depends upon the investments made by developed economies around the globe through the FDI and FII channels.
One of the distinctive achievements for India is that it has evolved as a robust electoral democracy that too with a considerable devolution of powers to the second- (States) and third- (local bodies) tier both in its rural and urban areas. This enabling environment will empower communities, women and the deprived groups and help a secular and equitable development. Yet India has to ensure considerable investments in mass education, skill formation, technical education and improvement of quality education. This alone will help the bulging working age population of future years so as to increase labor productivity. This will also help realize the demographic dividends through improved household consumption as well as enhanced public consumption, triggering accelerating effects. Further, a better educated and qualified workforce will be welcome world over especially by the ‘graying economies’ such as the western Europe, Japan and even to a limited extent China. Indeed, India has potential to be become a manufacturing hub rivaling China, and excel in exports in goods and services especially the IT based services, besides becoming the supplier of the skilled manpower to the world during next 30-40 years.
The structure of global competitive economy was such that India was the seventh largest in terms of volume of output at the time of its Independence. The British popularly identified India as the ‘jewel in the crown’. India during the medieval period was one of the largest economics and in league with China and Europe. The desire to exploit the riches from India was so great that Christopher Columbus’s voyage in an effort to find an easy sea route for trade moved westerly and discovered the Americas instead. Yet at the time India became Independent, not only two-thirds Indians were unable to fend for two square meals a day, but also that it hosted the world’s largest pool of poor and illiterate population. Although, India still hosts the world’s largest pool of the poor, proportionately poverty has declined substantially. Using a standard methodology for comparisons over time, one can argue that proportion of the poor in India is around 30%, in spite of the population almost doubling to doubling to 1130 million since the Independence. In absolute numbers however, about 350 million citizens are still poor, comparable to those existed during 1950s.
Since the mid-1980s, especially after 1991 India reformed its economic policies and striving to achieve new benchmarks, recording a robust GDP growth rate averaging close to 7.5 % over the last decade and even touching 10% during the recent quarters. Further, there are noteworthy improvements in literacy, life expectancy, infant and child mortality and other human development parameters; broad based public policies are in place so as to reach out to the deprived and hitherto excluded communities such as the Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes and religious minorities.
But the puzzle remains in the structure of the economy and sectoral shares of GDP. Early after the Independence over 60% of labor force was generating more than 50% of GDP from Agricultural and allied activities; but by about 2010 only 17% of GDP is generated with over 55% of labor force trapped in it. In recent years less than 20% of labor force is generating closer to 60% of GDP from services suggesting a technology intensive but labor replacing growth. The Industrial sector has grown in absolute terms but unable to improve its share in GDP of around a quarter and absorbing a similar share of labor. Such a growth trajectory can be devastating, since demographically by 2050, India will be the largest country in the world with a population of over 1.6 billion and a billion labor force. Compare this with China’s projected population at 1.4 billion and the next largest USA with just over 400 million by 2050.
The key is in the ‘capital stock’ a country would own, which is broadly referred to as that part of national wealth which is reproducible consisting of all resources contributing to the production of goods and services. This is an indicator of the capacity for investments determining future growth prospects. India is striving to ensure that real net capital stock is sustained which is about 252 per cent of the GDP, but this ratio is just about 50% in the US and 120% in Japan. In terms of per capita capital stock, in 2009, Japan tops with US$47711 followed by the USA at US$18708 and a meager amount of just about US$1500 in India. Thus India, while exhibits strength of the emerging economy so far as the capital stock is measured relative to its GDP, but in per capita terms it is far too low. Therefore, India’s future economic growth depends upon the investments made by developed economies around the globe through the FDI and FII channels.
One of the distinctive achievements for India is that it has evolved as a robust electoral democracy that too with a considerable devolution of powers to the second- (States) and third- (local bodies) tier both in its rural and urban areas. This enabling environment will empower communities, women and the deprived groups and help a secular and equitable development. Yet India has to ensure considerable investments in mass education, skill formation, technical education and improvement of quality education. This alone will help the bulging working age population of future years so as to increase labor productivity. This will also help realize the demographic dividends through improved household consumption as well as enhanced public consumption, triggering accelerating effects. Further, a better educated and qualified workforce will be welcome world over especially by the ‘graying economies’ such as the western Europe, Japan and even to a limited extent China. Indeed, India has potential to be become a manufacturing hub rivaling China, and excel in exports in goods and services especially the IT based services, besides becoming the supplier of the skilled manpower to the world during next 30-40 years.
Friday, September 17, 2010
Friday, September 10, 2010
Recent Articles/Book Review
OPED in Indian Express: 23rd August 2010
http://www.indianexpress.com/news/casting-the-caste-net/663820/
Invited Article in Outlook Magazine: 28th August 2010
http://www.outlookindia.com/article.aspx?266661
Economic and Political Weekly, Book Review
http://beta.epw.in/newsItem/comment/188683/
http://www.indianexpress.com/news/casting-the-caste-net/663820/
Invited Article in Outlook Magazine: 28th August 2010
http://www.outlookindia.com/article.aspx?266661
Economic and Political Weekly, Book Review
http://beta.epw.in/newsItem/comment/188683/
Monday, August 30, 2010
Big League India! Should we Celebrate?
Yes and NO !
The world is jubilant after a recovery, albeit meek, from the global gloom of economic meltdown of 2008-10 rivaling only the depression of the 1930’s. This recovery seems to have occurred by resilient growth in China and India and large bailout and economic restructuring packages offered by the US and European economies. While China has pushed down Japan to take second place next only to the US, India has also found a place in the top ten or trillion dollar economies and poised to take 5th position much before 2030.
India indeed has come a long way to create a niche for itself in the global economic space. The world foresee a demographic advantage that India can harness, given young age structure and a fast and consistent pace of income growth in GDP which is propelling shifts in consumption classes generating huge domestic demand for practically all types of modern goods and services. The markets for such products in the west are close to saturation and at the most meager. The investors world over, look into India as the power house to manufacture and export goods and services at cost effective contracts as well. There is also an expectation that India during the next 20-30 years will continue to provide trained manpower to the firms and business in the western world due to its relatively higher fertility levels and larger young age population.
There are credible predictions of large shifts in consumption behavior from the basic necessities to discretionary items and services. Indians are now being recognized as being the “maharajas of the technological type across the world”! Yet the fallacy of the growing economy gets highlighted only when one looks in to disparities of income. Although as measured by Gini coefficients the disparity of income/ consumption in India is about one half the level of China; it is interesting to watch the income disparities across the emerging markets during the next decade or so especially in India and China.
India produces close to 200 million tons of food grains including pulses and is self-sufficient so far as agricultural output is concerned. Yet one finds extremely high levels of malnutrition amongst the children and even the expectant and lactating mothers in India. The puzzling fact is that the level of malnourishment is even more than a number of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa which is so well known as the poorest part of the world.
The demographic dividends are expected out of labour supply potential that India has over other emerging economics of the world. However, it is also important to note that India’s population will also generates domestic demand in such a way that a substantial labour and skill pool is required to sustain domestic markets thus thrusting a considerable pressure on the global demand for labour either through fewer leaving India for other greener pastures; or though increase in exports of manufactured goods and services.
Both India and China are already facing shortage in a number of high skilled professions. The income growth is fueling air travel, while capital is aplenty to purchase/lease carriers both are facing serious shortage of aircraft pilots. Similarly, physicians, doctors, surgeons will be short of demand in both the economics especially when medical tourism is booming already in India. India so well known in having supplied software engineers all over the world will itself face serious shortage at home. While India is not at the verge of declining workforce as is the case with China; India has huge demerit in having a low educated and unskilled manpower which will be of hardly any use in the growing sectors of the economy. This means it is surely meant to increase wage bills not far from now in which case the labour and wage advantage that India had in the globalizing competitive environment will be lost, thus exposing the economy to risk of stagnation. Growing mismatch between the type of education skilled manpower that these countries have and the demand in the markets by the newly established companies and industries are going to cause a serious challenge within the next decade or so.
The structure of global competitive economy is such that India was the seventh largest in terms of volume of output at the time of its Independence; but in spite of the apparent high growth trajectory it is no where closer to that ranking presently. However, at the beginning of the 21st century the world is taking India seriously, mostly due to the imminent demographic advantage that this country is demonstrating to the world. India has always been a brain trust and exporter of highly educated manpower especially to the western world and to undertake business to countries such as the south-east Asia. Besides, considerable number of skilled (even at lower levels) labour force was attracted towards the west Asian economies right from the 1970s and this trend not yet reversed. While it would be fare that India would made all efforts to ensure that the newly developed production and distribution markets are sustained using the available labour and skills; it would be somewhat over ambitious to say that the Indian labour force will indeed be available to meet the requirement of the outside economies. On the contrary however, a noticeable number of professionals are returning back to India to seek employment in high growth sectors such as the Information Technology, Research and Development in pharmaceuticals and medicine and other high technology sectors. India needs large investments in education and technological training so as to skill growing labour force and meet the expectations at least partially.
India has many puzzles and dualisms: for example the debates over ‘India’ versus ‘Bharat’ or the urban rural divide; the unorganized versus organized workforce; continuance of abject poverty and hunger when the growth rates are best in the world; and issues revolving around social and income poverty. These debates will be explored in the subsequent chunks of articles to follow.
The world is jubilant after a recovery, albeit meek, from the global gloom of economic meltdown of 2008-10 rivaling only the depression of the 1930’s. This recovery seems to have occurred by resilient growth in China and India and large bailout and economic restructuring packages offered by the US and European economies. While China has pushed down Japan to take second place next only to the US, India has also found a place in the top ten or trillion dollar economies and poised to take 5th position much before 2030.
India indeed has come a long way to create a niche for itself in the global economic space. The world foresee a demographic advantage that India can harness, given young age structure and a fast and consistent pace of income growth in GDP which is propelling shifts in consumption classes generating huge domestic demand for practically all types of modern goods and services. The markets for such products in the west are close to saturation and at the most meager. The investors world over, look into India as the power house to manufacture and export goods and services at cost effective contracts as well. There is also an expectation that India during the next 20-30 years will continue to provide trained manpower to the firms and business in the western world due to its relatively higher fertility levels and larger young age population.
There are credible predictions of large shifts in consumption behavior from the basic necessities to discretionary items and services. Indians are now being recognized as being the “maharajas of the technological type across the world”! Yet the fallacy of the growing economy gets highlighted only when one looks in to disparities of income. Although as measured by Gini coefficients the disparity of income/ consumption in India is about one half the level of China; it is interesting to watch the income disparities across the emerging markets during the next decade or so especially in India and China.
India produces close to 200 million tons of food grains including pulses and is self-sufficient so far as agricultural output is concerned. Yet one finds extremely high levels of malnutrition amongst the children and even the expectant and lactating mothers in India. The puzzling fact is that the level of malnourishment is even more than a number of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa which is so well known as the poorest part of the world.
The demographic dividends are expected out of labour supply potential that India has over other emerging economics of the world. However, it is also important to note that India’s population will also generates domestic demand in such a way that a substantial labour and skill pool is required to sustain domestic markets thus thrusting a considerable pressure on the global demand for labour either through fewer leaving India for other greener pastures; or though increase in exports of manufactured goods and services.
Both India and China are already facing shortage in a number of high skilled professions. The income growth is fueling air travel, while capital is aplenty to purchase/lease carriers both are facing serious shortage of aircraft pilots. Similarly, physicians, doctors, surgeons will be short of demand in both the economics especially when medical tourism is booming already in India. India so well known in having supplied software engineers all over the world will itself face serious shortage at home. While India is not at the verge of declining workforce as is the case with China; India has huge demerit in having a low educated and unskilled manpower which will be of hardly any use in the growing sectors of the economy. This means it is surely meant to increase wage bills not far from now in which case the labour and wage advantage that India had in the globalizing competitive environment will be lost, thus exposing the economy to risk of stagnation. Growing mismatch between the type of education skilled manpower that these countries have and the demand in the markets by the newly established companies and industries are going to cause a serious challenge within the next decade or so.
The structure of global competitive economy is such that India was the seventh largest in terms of volume of output at the time of its Independence; but in spite of the apparent high growth trajectory it is no where closer to that ranking presently. However, at the beginning of the 21st century the world is taking India seriously, mostly due to the imminent demographic advantage that this country is demonstrating to the world. India has always been a brain trust and exporter of highly educated manpower especially to the western world and to undertake business to countries such as the south-east Asia. Besides, considerable number of skilled (even at lower levels) labour force was attracted towards the west Asian economies right from the 1970s and this trend not yet reversed. While it would be fare that India would made all efforts to ensure that the newly developed production and distribution markets are sustained using the available labour and skills; it would be somewhat over ambitious to say that the Indian labour force will indeed be available to meet the requirement of the outside economies. On the contrary however, a noticeable number of professionals are returning back to India to seek employment in high growth sectors such as the Information Technology, Research and Development in pharmaceuticals and medicine and other high technology sectors. India needs large investments in education and technological training so as to skill growing labour force and meet the expectations at least partially.
India has many puzzles and dualisms: for example the debates over ‘India’ versus ‘Bharat’ or the urban rural divide; the unorganized versus organized workforce; continuance of abject poverty and hunger when the growth rates are best in the world; and issues revolving around social and income poverty. These debates will be explored in the subsequent chunks of articles to follow.
Four Years after Sachar? Are Muslims better off in India?
An article published in OUTLOOK INDIA Magazine, Special Independice day Issue, 23rd August 2010. http://www.outlookindia.com/article.aspx?266661
The Lamb's Share
It is essential to begin this essay by emphasizing the fact that the minorities including the Muslims maintain aspirations and seek opportunities for development similar to any other community in India. Yet an empirical review suggests Muslims lagging practically in all spheres of development including education, employment, income and assets and so on. There are some efforts from both the centre and state governments to overcome deprivation amongst the Muslims across India, but a quick review of outcomes suggest little improvements. There is a need for durable changes, firstly a recognition that deprivation amongst the minorities /
Muslims exists due to systemic causes which can be set right only through broad based public policy initiatives, not entirely through special purpose vehicles such as the minority/Muslim oriented programs; rather assisting them to strive to access their share within the mainstream line ministries, departments and programs.
India through the 73rd and 74th constitutional amendment has made a strong socio-political statement of its arrival as a matured democracy, championing multi-layer decentralized governance, sharing substantial powers and national pool of resources with the States. Further, the enduring cannons of governance and economic development are grounded in principals of socialism, inclusiveness and secularism and fully conscious of regional imbalance given a large expanse of the Indian nation. India probably is a rare example of pluralism, with multi-dimensional cultural and social groupings, language, race, region and not the least religion; in short rich in diversity.
Like other main communities of India, the Muslims should be able to pursue social, economic and educational aspirations within the frame and support of government provided infrastructure, opportunities and political awakening. Thus one expect ‘diversity’ - the diversity natural to our population should get reflected in the public spheres such as in educational institutions, public and organized sector employment, political system and governance structures at all levels. Yet, in spite of the fact that practically all social, educational and economic spheres of living are governed, regulated and implemented by the States; one would find substantial (often unacceptable level) differences between varied social groups and across states. Such differentials are prominent in spite of special constitutional provisions bestowed upon the minorities since the Independence.
Over 150 million citizens, just about 14% of all Indians profess Islam as their religion and reside across all parts of India. Muslims are the largest (80%) of all identified minorities of India. They reside in substantial numbers and proportions in states such as Assam, West Bengal, Kerala, UP and Bihar, Gujarat, Maharashtra and so on. There are examples and best practices found within India. Consider the states of Kerala, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, all have devised policies favoring Muslims at two levels. (a) Along with all others, the Muslims have relatively better access to quality mass education (both elementary and higher level) and employment; and (b) given the history of relative deprivation of the Muslims the state policy have extended the benefit of reservations in a certain measure of fractional-proportions linked to their size and share in population. Such quotas are enabling the Muslim girls and boys to catch up with their peers amongst the Hindus and Christians, both in education and employment. Similar provisions will enable Muslims to participate even in the political spaces; and Andhra Pradesh has made a beginning by promoting a system of ‘co-option’ or ‘nomination’ system to the Mandals (sub-taluka), Zila Parishads and Municipalities/Naga Panchayets (AP Panchayat Act 2006).
Thus maintaining diversity in public spheres is essential. When this does not happen naturally, it has to be made to happen through government intervention. Legislation can be one way; and the mechanism is to remind the government and the institutions that ensuring diversity is their responsibility; the state should have done it in the first place. Diversity can be assured in India by offering incentives/credits to government departments, institutions, universities, panchayats, PSU and so on.
Another mechanism is to provide institutional access to any one of the citizens (including religious minorities) to ensure ‘Equity’ in public sphere. An ‘Equal Opportunity Commission’ will go a long way both to ensure diversity as a key state objective, and it can also function as an institution to enforce redressal.
The national government has made some efforts during the past 3-4 years to address various aspects of Muslim deprivation. Broadly under the revised 15-point programme, a special investment program in about 100 minority (includes substantial Christian and Muslim populations) concentration districts (MCD); exclusive scholarships are announced for the first time to cover minorities both in elementary and higher levels of education. The RBI is consistently sending memos to the public sector banks to increase funding to the applicants from the minorities and so on. However, a review of all the above programs suggest, that the MCD program has not even made presence in many states such as West Bengal, Assam, Bihar, Jharkhand and Gujarat. The overall utilization is less than 20% of the total funds earmarked to this program since inception. Similarly the scholarship program although very popular is able to cover only a fraction of total applicants; and it appears that the public sector banks have not even taken a note of the repeated requests make by the RBI which is a matter to utmost concern.
The larger malice of exclusion has to be fought unitedly by all ‘regular-line departments’ and Ministries at the national and State levels. It also needs collaboration and partnership with civil society and private institutional structures. How will a separate Ministry ensure the implementation of more than 300 programs that aim to alleviate poverty and improve human development which will promote inclusiveness of the excluded, whether they be Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes or Muslims?
In the absence of any time-line, program-specific implementative strategy and clarity with respect to monitoring tools and mechanisms, no results will be forthcoming. It is important to mention that a flat policy of earmarking 15 per cent of budgetary allocations to favor the minorities is not implementable. Rather, the service delivery procedures must use population shares at the “program specified operational levels” such as the district, taluka and block levels so as to ensure maximum coverage and provide a sense of equity. The early euphoria and expectations are dying out. The UPA -1 took many initiatives to dissect and diagnose the problem, and UPA -2 must ensure that inclusive policies are actually implemented before the people at large become disappointed. I only hope this does not lead to frustration.
The Lamb's Share
It is essential to begin this essay by emphasizing the fact that the minorities including the Muslims maintain aspirations and seek opportunities for development similar to any other community in India. Yet an empirical review suggests Muslims lagging practically in all spheres of development including education, employment, income and assets and so on. There are some efforts from both the centre and state governments to overcome deprivation amongst the Muslims across India, but a quick review of outcomes suggest little improvements. There is a need for durable changes, firstly a recognition that deprivation amongst the minorities /
Muslims exists due to systemic causes which can be set right only through broad based public policy initiatives, not entirely through special purpose vehicles such as the minority/Muslim oriented programs; rather assisting them to strive to access their share within the mainstream line ministries, departments and programs.
India through the 73rd and 74th constitutional amendment has made a strong socio-political statement of its arrival as a matured democracy, championing multi-layer decentralized governance, sharing substantial powers and national pool of resources with the States. Further, the enduring cannons of governance and economic development are grounded in principals of socialism, inclusiveness and secularism and fully conscious of regional imbalance given a large expanse of the Indian nation. India probably is a rare example of pluralism, with multi-dimensional cultural and social groupings, language, race, region and not the least religion; in short rich in diversity.
Like other main communities of India, the Muslims should be able to pursue social, economic and educational aspirations within the frame and support of government provided infrastructure, opportunities and political awakening. Thus one expect ‘diversity’ - the diversity natural to our population should get reflected in the public spheres such as in educational institutions, public and organized sector employment, political system and governance structures at all levels. Yet, in spite of the fact that practically all social, educational and economic spheres of living are governed, regulated and implemented by the States; one would find substantial (often unacceptable level) differences between varied social groups and across states. Such differentials are prominent in spite of special constitutional provisions bestowed upon the minorities since the Independence.
Over 150 million citizens, just about 14% of all Indians profess Islam as their religion and reside across all parts of India. Muslims are the largest (80%) of all identified minorities of India. They reside in substantial numbers and proportions in states such as Assam, West Bengal, Kerala, UP and Bihar, Gujarat, Maharashtra and so on. There are examples and best practices found within India. Consider the states of Kerala, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, all have devised policies favoring Muslims at two levels. (a) Along with all others, the Muslims have relatively better access to quality mass education (both elementary and higher level) and employment; and (b) given the history of relative deprivation of the Muslims the state policy have extended the benefit of reservations in a certain measure of fractional-proportions linked to their size and share in population. Such quotas are enabling the Muslim girls and boys to catch up with their peers amongst the Hindus and Christians, both in education and employment. Similar provisions will enable Muslims to participate even in the political spaces; and Andhra Pradesh has made a beginning by promoting a system of ‘co-option’ or ‘nomination’ system to the Mandals (sub-taluka), Zila Parishads and Municipalities/Naga Panchayets (AP Panchayat Act 2006).
Thus maintaining diversity in public spheres is essential. When this does not happen naturally, it has to be made to happen through government intervention. Legislation can be one way; and the mechanism is to remind the government and the institutions that ensuring diversity is their responsibility; the state should have done it in the first place. Diversity can be assured in India by offering incentives/credits to government departments, institutions, universities, panchayats, PSU and so on.
Another mechanism is to provide institutional access to any one of the citizens (including religious minorities) to ensure ‘Equity’ in public sphere. An ‘Equal Opportunity Commission’ will go a long way both to ensure diversity as a key state objective, and it can also function as an institution to enforce redressal.
The national government has made some efforts during the past 3-4 years to address various aspects of Muslim deprivation. Broadly under the revised 15-point programme, a special investment program in about 100 minority (includes substantial Christian and Muslim populations) concentration districts (MCD); exclusive scholarships are announced for the first time to cover minorities both in elementary and higher levels of education. The RBI is consistently sending memos to the public sector banks to increase funding to the applicants from the minorities and so on. However, a review of all the above programs suggest, that the MCD program has not even made presence in many states such as West Bengal, Assam, Bihar, Jharkhand and Gujarat. The overall utilization is less than 20% of the total funds earmarked to this program since inception. Similarly the scholarship program although very popular is able to cover only a fraction of total applicants; and it appears that the public sector banks have not even taken a note of the repeated requests make by the RBI which is a matter to utmost concern.
The larger malice of exclusion has to be fought unitedly by all ‘regular-line departments’ and Ministries at the national and State levels. It also needs collaboration and partnership with civil society and private institutional structures. How will a separate Ministry ensure the implementation of more than 300 programs that aim to alleviate poverty and improve human development which will promote inclusiveness of the excluded, whether they be Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes or Muslims?
In the absence of any time-line, program-specific implementative strategy and clarity with respect to monitoring tools and mechanisms, no results will be forthcoming. It is important to mention that a flat policy of earmarking 15 per cent of budgetary allocations to favor the minorities is not implementable. Rather, the service delivery procedures must use population shares at the “program specified operational levels” such as the district, taluka and block levels so as to ensure maximum coverage and provide a sense of equity. The early euphoria and expectations are dying out. The UPA -1 took many initiatives to dissect and diagnose the problem, and UPA -2 must ensure that inclusive policies are actually implemented before the people at large become disappointed. I only hope this does not lead to frustration.
How will Caste Census affect the Muslims in India?
Published as an editorial article in the Indian Express, 23rd August, 2010
http://www.indianexpress.com/news/casting-the-caste-net/663820/
Casting the Caste Net
The GoM under Shri Pranab Mukherjee’s chairmanship has approved collecting Caste information in Census 2011. Although Muslims are considered a casteless community, it is a diverse society and practically all are experiencing deep levels of deprivation in various social, educational and economic facets of life. In the following I discuss alternatives for collecting caste data and also highlight implications to the Muslim community within the context of inclusive development agenda of the UPA government.
Open ended question method: Given a large number of castes and caste like identities in India; whatever ‘caste name’ the informants’ report can be filled-in and codified later. A pre-coded list of castes that enumerators normally carry to ascertain the SC/ST identity will continue; and for all others it can be open ended caste reporting. Such a method will reveal the actual numbers, but from these numbers it is not possible to declare a particular caste as backward or forward. The information on socio, economic and educational indicators which will be collected in the Census 2011may not be adequate to compute the backwardness or forwardness of castes. The Muslim community will participate in this process of data collection of the open ended caste identities along with all other community groups in India. But it appears that such an open method will not be used in the 2011 census operation although the demand of cast collection of data is of this nature.
Matching of reported caste with the pre-coded Caste/Class Lists: As mentioned above the SCs and STs are so identified using a pre-coded list which is matched at the time of census taking itself. Thus, only two coded categories are extracted from the Census which are used to estimate the SCs and STs for any geographic or administrative area. Now since the demand for the caste census has been made mostly by the castes which can be grouped as the OBCs (other backward classes); it is but expected that similar procedure is used to collect the share of OBCs in the 2011 census.
Unlike in case for the SCs/STs for whom the respective lists are being compiled and updated since last six censuses in Independent India; the case for OBCs is to be undertaken for the first time in 2011. The most likely benchmark will be a list of OBCs from the Mandal Commission. It is puzzling to note that as per the Mandal Commission, ‘OBC list’ is considered a ‘class category with little sociological, cultural or economic basis to designate as such. Besides, the OBC list was prepared almost 30 years ago and that too in the absence of any dependable data. The communities were identified using some sketchy data from 1931 census of India and in many cases even by the Mandal Commission’s own view are ‘best guesses’. I am of the opinion that using the OBC list during the 2011 census to identify the size and share of OBC will be highly problematic, and it will make devising inclusive policies difficult both at the national and state level.
The Mandal Commission has guessed the percentages of both the Hindu and non-Hindu OBCs based on assumptions. For example, one notices wide variation in identifying the ‘castes’ and their shares to qualify as OBCs both in State and Central lists. For example, in case of Muslims, while almost all Muslims in Kerala are listed as OBCs, almost none (very small proportion) in West Bengal are listed as such in the Mandal Commission document. About 40% of Muslims are counted as the OBCs in Uttar Pradesh and such OBCs in Karnataka are about 5-7%. The OBC listing for the Muslims for all the respective states is just ‘guestimates’ and are not true estimates. Using such lists will do more harm to the cause of Muslims especially because a large number or proportion of Muslims will be counted as those belonging to the ‘high castes/class’ and therefore will be excluded from any scheme of affirmative action (for example, if government considers implementation of Ranganath Mishra Commission recommendations or other similar inclusive policies).
It could be seen from the statement below that only about 25% of all Hindus are considered as the High Castes or socio-economically better offs; whereas, about 50% of Muslims are classified as High Castes or socio-economically better offs. This is because none from the Muslims are classified under the SCs/STs category and all such Muslims with the SC / ST identity are actually listed as the High Castes/Class which is unacceptable. This is a serious anomaly in estimates of OBCs by Mandal commission in case of Muslim community.
Mandal Commission Caste/Class Classification and Proportions of
Hindus and Muslims in India
Religion SCs+STs OBCs All Others (High Caste/Class)
Hindus 23 52 25
Muslims 0 52 48
Source: Extracts from the Mandal Commission
In view of these facts it is essential that correct estimates with respect to (a) ‘SCs/STs type Muslims’, (b) ‘OBC Muslims’ and (c) ‘all other Muslims’ are undertaken with care and sensitivity. Even if the SC/ST type of Muslims are not so listed due to certain procedural hurdles even when legally and constitutionally appropriate; such Muslims must be listed as OBCs in which case upto 80% of all Muslims will be so classified. Note that, practically all Muslims in India are converts and hardly any original Muslims who migrated from out of erstwhile Indian territory now reside in India. Further, it is historically documented that most of those converted to Islam belong to low castes such as the dalits and the tribes. The ‘Sachar Committee’ (2006) on status of Muslims in India has also clearly revealed the distressing socio-economic and educational conditions of Muslims of India.
I will be almost impossible to prepare a list of Muslim caste/class for classifying them as Muslim-OBCs. Therefore, I suggest that ‘list of exclusion’ can be prepared so as to determine the social forwardness or backwardness of a large section of Muslims in India. Such list of exclusion can be prepared for each state separately after consultations with the state level Muslim intellectuals and religious bodies. Thus, once a list of exclusion is prepared, all other Muslims who do not match with the list of exclusion can be identified as the “Muslim OBCs”.
Given the UPA governments resolve to ensure inclusive development of India, it is necessary a serious anomaly with respect to identification of the Muslims OBCs is removed before the conduct of the 2011 census, lest the discrimination so far faced by the Muslims continue for ever after.
[A rejoinder to this article can be found in this link: http://www.pasmandamuslims.com/2010/08/caste-census-and-indian-muslims_28.html]
http://www.indianexpress.com/news/casting-the-caste-net/663820/
Casting the Caste Net
The GoM under Shri Pranab Mukherjee’s chairmanship has approved collecting Caste information in Census 2011. Although Muslims are considered a casteless community, it is a diverse society and practically all are experiencing deep levels of deprivation in various social, educational and economic facets of life. In the following I discuss alternatives for collecting caste data and also highlight implications to the Muslim community within the context of inclusive development agenda of the UPA government.
Open ended question method: Given a large number of castes and caste like identities in India; whatever ‘caste name’ the informants’ report can be filled-in and codified later. A pre-coded list of castes that enumerators normally carry to ascertain the SC/ST identity will continue; and for all others it can be open ended caste reporting. Such a method will reveal the actual numbers, but from these numbers it is not possible to declare a particular caste as backward or forward. The information on socio, economic and educational indicators which will be collected in the Census 2011may not be adequate to compute the backwardness or forwardness of castes. The Muslim community will participate in this process of data collection of the open ended caste identities along with all other community groups in India. But it appears that such an open method will not be used in the 2011 census operation although the demand of cast collection of data is of this nature.
Matching of reported caste with the pre-coded Caste/Class Lists: As mentioned above the SCs and STs are so identified using a pre-coded list which is matched at the time of census taking itself. Thus, only two coded categories are extracted from the Census which are used to estimate the SCs and STs for any geographic or administrative area. Now since the demand for the caste census has been made mostly by the castes which can be grouped as the OBCs (other backward classes); it is but expected that similar procedure is used to collect the share of OBCs in the 2011 census.
Unlike in case for the SCs/STs for whom the respective lists are being compiled and updated since last six censuses in Independent India; the case for OBCs is to be undertaken for the first time in 2011. The most likely benchmark will be a list of OBCs from the Mandal Commission. It is puzzling to note that as per the Mandal Commission, ‘OBC list’ is considered a ‘class category with little sociological, cultural or economic basis to designate as such. Besides, the OBC list was prepared almost 30 years ago and that too in the absence of any dependable data. The communities were identified using some sketchy data from 1931 census of India and in many cases even by the Mandal Commission’s own view are ‘best guesses’. I am of the opinion that using the OBC list during the 2011 census to identify the size and share of OBC will be highly problematic, and it will make devising inclusive policies difficult both at the national and state level.
The Mandal Commission has guessed the percentages of both the Hindu and non-Hindu OBCs based on assumptions. For example, one notices wide variation in identifying the ‘castes’ and their shares to qualify as OBCs both in State and Central lists. For example, in case of Muslims, while almost all Muslims in Kerala are listed as OBCs, almost none (very small proportion) in West Bengal are listed as such in the Mandal Commission document. About 40% of Muslims are counted as the OBCs in Uttar Pradesh and such OBCs in Karnataka are about 5-7%. The OBC listing for the Muslims for all the respective states is just ‘guestimates’ and are not true estimates. Using such lists will do more harm to the cause of Muslims especially because a large number or proportion of Muslims will be counted as those belonging to the ‘high castes/class’ and therefore will be excluded from any scheme of affirmative action (for example, if government considers implementation of Ranganath Mishra Commission recommendations or other similar inclusive policies).
It could be seen from the statement below that only about 25% of all Hindus are considered as the High Castes or socio-economically better offs; whereas, about 50% of Muslims are classified as High Castes or socio-economically better offs. This is because none from the Muslims are classified under the SCs/STs category and all such Muslims with the SC / ST identity are actually listed as the High Castes/Class which is unacceptable. This is a serious anomaly in estimates of OBCs by Mandal commission in case of Muslim community.
Mandal Commission Caste/Class Classification and Proportions of
Hindus and Muslims in India
Religion SCs+STs OBCs All Others (High Caste/Class)
Hindus 23 52 25
Muslims 0 52 48
Source: Extracts from the Mandal Commission
In view of these facts it is essential that correct estimates with respect to (a) ‘SCs/STs type Muslims’, (b) ‘OBC Muslims’ and (c) ‘all other Muslims’ are undertaken with care and sensitivity. Even if the SC/ST type of Muslims are not so listed due to certain procedural hurdles even when legally and constitutionally appropriate; such Muslims must be listed as OBCs in which case upto 80% of all Muslims will be so classified. Note that, practically all Muslims in India are converts and hardly any original Muslims who migrated from out of erstwhile Indian territory now reside in India. Further, it is historically documented that most of those converted to Islam belong to low castes such as the dalits and the tribes. The ‘Sachar Committee’ (2006) on status of Muslims in India has also clearly revealed the distressing socio-economic and educational conditions of Muslims of India.
I will be almost impossible to prepare a list of Muslim caste/class for classifying them as Muslim-OBCs. Therefore, I suggest that ‘list of exclusion’ can be prepared so as to determine the social forwardness or backwardness of a large section of Muslims in India. Such list of exclusion can be prepared for each state separately after consultations with the state level Muslim intellectuals and religious bodies. Thus, once a list of exclusion is prepared, all other Muslims who do not match with the list of exclusion can be identified as the “Muslim OBCs”.
Given the UPA governments resolve to ensure inclusive development of India, it is necessary a serious anomaly with respect to identification of the Muslims OBCs is removed before the conduct of the 2011 census, lest the discrimination so far faced by the Muslims continue for ever after.
[A rejoinder to this article can be found in this link: http://www.pasmandamuslims.com/2010/08/caste-census-and-indian-muslims_28.html]
Thursday, May 27, 2010
Proposed Caste Census 2011 in India
There is a renewed demand from many corners, especially a segment of political leadership to collect a citizen’s caste affiliation during the 2011 census of India. The GOI in principle has agreed to collect information on caste in 2011 census; but what is not clear is as to what kind of information on caste will be collected; will it be collected during the house listing operation or during the population census. It appears the whole process of ‘upward social mobility’ will get up-side-down to ‘downward social mobility’ or what we can call as Competitive Backwardness. In the following, however, I identify the difficulties in collecting caste data through the ongoing operations relating to census 2011.
1. Operational Difficulties in Collecting Caste in Census 2011:
Census Operation
The census is undertaken in two phases. A house listing operation (Phase 1) precedes the population enumeration (phase 2) usually scheduled during months of February and March of the census years. The house listing for census 2011 is already in progress.
House Listing Operation collects information on SCs & STs (see item 15 in the attached proforma):
Item 15: If SC* (1) or ST* (2) Other (3)
* Note: Scheduled Caste can be only from Hindus, Sikhs and Buddhists and not from other religion. Schedule Tribe can be from any religion.
However, information on Religion is not collected during house listing operations. Since information on the SCs and STs are collected using a list provided by the government as a check list similar arrangement can be made to collect information on other castes but all clubbed in an additional category OBC (other backward classes). There is some logical problem in such an effort as it is the caste identity (not class) which will be used to classify them as ‘Other Backward Class’. Yet this is an easier process to compile OBC information provided there is a checklist of OBC castes provided by government of India.
OPTION 1:
Suggested format of the new Item 15 in the ‘house listing proforma:
if SC* (1) or ST* (2) OBC (3) Other (4)
However, this is not feasible now; due to the fact that the phase 1 or the house listing operation is already on all over India and it is too late to incorporate this information. Further according to news paper announcements, the caste data will be collected as an additional question – “what is your cast”. This question now can be asked only in phase 2 which is known as Population Enumeration Operation undertaken during March-April 2011. Since there is no ready list of OBCs for cross checking during the data collection stage itself, it has to be an open question asked immediacy after the questions on religion (Q. 7), SC (Q.8) and ST (Q.9) as follows:
Phase II : Population Enumeration| February –March 2011
Q. 7: Religion (Write name of the religion in full)
Q. 8: If Scheduled Caste, Write name of the SC from the list supplied
Q .9: If Scheduled Tribe, write name of the ST from the list supplied
OPTION 2:
Proposed Q.10: What is your Caste? _____________________
Such a question will generate a lot of caste reporting exclusive to each state and regions within state. Often the same caste is identified/pronounced and spelled differently and also the same caste has different status in different states. Collating such information subsequent to conclusion of Census will be a herculean effort and can be the basis for controversies. Therefore one needs to be clear and careful as to what kind of caste data have to be collected in Q.10 of the population enumeration proforma using the currently proposed question ‘what is your caste?’.
OPTION 3:
Another option is to consider collecting information only on ‘as to whether the individual belongs to a OBC category? As discussed earlier (see Option 1above) this can be done only if there is an approved list of OBCs provided apriori by Government of India. In the absence of approved OBC list, self-reported categorization will generate huge errors. Since, eliciting OBC information during enumeration will have to be done as an additional question after the question on religion there can be errors due to misreporting and confounding effects. Thus self-reporting of the OBC status will be affected considerably by the religious affiliation. Note that if the OBC information is collected during the house listing such errors would be low as no question on religion precedes. The recent debates on extension of ‘reservation’ benefits to individuals belonging to religions other than Hindus have indeed generated anxiety and also expectations especially amongst the minorities.
2. Possible Contamination of Census Information
India has a long uninterrupted history of undertaking census every 10 years since the late 19th century and certainly a regular pan-Indian census since the Independence. Indian Census is respected across the world for its quality and academic content. A lot of debates and research has fed the number and type of question to be included in the ‘house listing’ and ‘population enumeration’ exercises. It is useful to note that the last time caste information was collected was during census 1931.
Further, the concepts, definitions and questions are standardized in such a way that the inter-censal comparisons are possible. Such comparisons are the basis to evaluate a number of economic, social, educational and work/employment parameters for India and its many states and even districts. Therefore, any addition or alteration and even change in placement of a question, both in the listing and enumeration proforme can cause changes in the quality of data in other words can contaminate census information.
(a) For example, the errors in self-reported SCs/STs and OBCs category can be enormous by boosting the respective population shares which can prompt increase in the quota shares. This can happen because – those not SCs/STs may get motivated to report themselves as such; so will be the case for OBCs. Since the OBC reservation debate is in its peak one can expect an extra caution amongst the OBCs to ensure reporting; while there can also be misreporting thus boosting the share of OBCs in the population. Even communities with no caste identities may innovate or identify a caste for themselves.
(b) Distorted Occupations: It is likely that caste question can affect the reporting of occupations. The possibility is large due to expected gains offered by the government based on caste/occupation linked targeting such as programs for ‘weavers’ and so on. There can many other distortions or contamination of data.
3. What we know about OBC Identity? What can be Done?
‘Mid-Term Census’ (MTC)
There are two types of demands in the recent past with respect to additional data to be collected from the Indian decennial census. (a) The caste data with a focus on identifying correct share of OBCs since the Mandal commission linked reservations are based on old data from 1931 and not so valid local level surveys. (b) Another demand has been to collect information so as to assess the accessibility to the human capital enhancing government investments and provisioning of social services/safety nets.
It is therefore conceived that time is ripe for a ‘Mid-Term Census (MTC)’ say every five years after the main Census which can collected data on caste as well as on social parameters and other qualitative variables. The mega programs such as the MG-NREGA, PDS and ICDS have not been evaluated so as to find out the efficacy of the program and undertake cost benefit estimates. Further delinking such data collection through a MTC will help in keeping the comprehensive nature of the main census that too with no contamination which is essential in inter-censal comparisons. There are many other countries around the world who conduct census with 5 year interval. However, cost considerations will be important aspects in such a decision making, which is not enunciated in this note.
Special Surveys by Independent Agencies / National Sample Surveys
The other possibility is to commission special surveys and improve the scope and coverage of the National Sample Surveys. The current sample size in the NSSO is around two hundred thousand if both the central and state samples are merged. The NSSO in its 55th and 61st round have collected OBC data, so are a few other independent surveys such as the National Council of Applied Economic Research’s (NCAER) human development surveys, and the National Health and Family Surveys. The state specific distribution of population according to broad caste categories are presented in the following table and graphs. One notices a large disparity between states especially Kerala and West Bengal which needs further discussion.
1. Operational Difficulties in Collecting Caste in Census 2011:
Census Operation
The census is undertaken in two phases. A house listing operation (Phase 1) precedes the population enumeration (phase 2) usually scheduled during months of February and March of the census years. The house listing for census 2011 is already in progress.
House Listing Operation collects information on SCs & STs (see item 15 in the attached proforma):
Item 15: If SC* (1) or ST* (2) Other (3)
* Note: Scheduled Caste can be only from Hindus, Sikhs and Buddhists and not from other religion. Schedule Tribe can be from any religion.
However, information on Religion is not collected during house listing operations. Since information on the SCs and STs are collected using a list provided by the government as a check list similar arrangement can be made to collect information on other castes but all clubbed in an additional category OBC (other backward classes). There is some logical problem in such an effort as it is the caste identity (not class) which will be used to classify them as ‘Other Backward Class’. Yet this is an easier process to compile OBC information provided there is a checklist of OBC castes provided by government of India.
OPTION 1:
Suggested format of the new Item 15 in the ‘house listing proforma:
if SC* (1) or ST* (2) OBC (3) Other (4)
However, this is not feasible now; due to the fact that the phase 1 or the house listing operation is already on all over India and it is too late to incorporate this information. Further according to news paper announcements, the caste data will be collected as an additional question – “what is your cast”. This question now can be asked only in phase 2 which is known as Population Enumeration Operation undertaken during March-April 2011. Since there is no ready list of OBCs for cross checking during the data collection stage itself, it has to be an open question asked immediacy after the questions on religion (Q. 7), SC (Q.8) and ST (Q.9) as follows:
Phase II : Population Enumeration| February –March 2011
Q. 7: Religion (Write name of the religion in full)
Q. 8: If Scheduled Caste, Write name of the SC from the list supplied
Q .9: If Scheduled Tribe, write name of the ST from the list supplied
OPTION 2:
Proposed Q.10: What is your Caste? _____________________
Such a question will generate a lot of caste reporting exclusive to each state and regions within state. Often the same caste is identified/pronounced and spelled differently and also the same caste has different status in different states. Collating such information subsequent to conclusion of Census will be a herculean effort and can be the basis for controversies. Therefore one needs to be clear and careful as to what kind of caste data have to be collected in Q.10 of the population enumeration proforma using the currently proposed question ‘what is your caste?’.
OPTION 3:
Another option is to consider collecting information only on ‘as to whether the individual belongs to a OBC category? As discussed earlier (see Option 1above) this can be done only if there is an approved list of OBCs provided apriori by Government of India. In the absence of approved OBC list, self-reported categorization will generate huge errors. Since, eliciting OBC information during enumeration will have to be done as an additional question after the question on religion there can be errors due to misreporting and confounding effects. Thus self-reporting of the OBC status will be affected considerably by the religious affiliation. Note that if the OBC information is collected during the house listing such errors would be low as no question on religion precedes. The recent debates on extension of ‘reservation’ benefits to individuals belonging to religions other than Hindus have indeed generated anxiety and also expectations especially amongst the minorities.
2. Possible Contamination of Census Information
India has a long uninterrupted history of undertaking census every 10 years since the late 19th century and certainly a regular pan-Indian census since the Independence. Indian Census is respected across the world for its quality and academic content. A lot of debates and research has fed the number and type of question to be included in the ‘house listing’ and ‘population enumeration’ exercises. It is useful to note that the last time caste information was collected was during census 1931.
Further, the concepts, definitions and questions are standardized in such a way that the inter-censal comparisons are possible. Such comparisons are the basis to evaluate a number of economic, social, educational and work/employment parameters for India and its many states and even districts. Therefore, any addition or alteration and even change in placement of a question, both in the listing and enumeration proforme can cause changes in the quality of data in other words can contaminate census information.
(a) For example, the errors in self-reported SCs/STs and OBCs category can be enormous by boosting the respective population shares which can prompt increase in the quota shares. This can happen because – those not SCs/STs may get motivated to report themselves as such; so will be the case for OBCs. Since the OBC reservation debate is in its peak one can expect an extra caution amongst the OBCs to ensure reporting; while there can also be misreporting thus boosting the share of OBCs in the population. Even communities with no caste identities may innovate or identify a caste for themselves.
(b) Distorted Occupations: It is likely that caste question can affect the reporting of occupations. The possibility is large due to expected gains offered by the government based on caste/occupation linked targeting such as programs for ‘weavers’ and so on. There can many other distortions or contamination of data.
3. What we know about OBC Identity? What can be Done?
‘Mid-Term Census’ (MTC)
There are two types of demands in the recent past with respect to additional data to be collected from the Indian decennial census. (a) The caste data with a focus on identifying correct share of OBCs since the Mandal commission linked reservations are based on old data from 1931 and not so valid local level surveys. (b) Another demand has been to collect information so as to assess the accessibility to the human capital enhancing government investments and provisioning of social services/safety nets.
It is therefore conceived that time is ripe for a ‘Mid-Term Census (MTC)’ say every five years after the main Census which can collected data on caste as well as on social parameters and other qualitative variables. The mega programs such as the MG-NREGA, PDS and ICDS have not been evaluated so as to find out the efficacy of the program and undertake cost benefit estimates. Further delinking such data collection through a MTC will help in keeping the comprehensive nature of the main census that too with no contamination which is essential in inter-censal comparisons. There are many other countries around the world who conduct census with 5 year interval. However, cost considerations will be important aspects in such a decision making, which is not enunciated in this note.
Special Surveys by Independent Agencies / National Sample Surveys
The other possibility is to commission special surveys and improve the scope and coverage of the National Sample Surveys. The current sample size in the NSSO is around two hundred thousand if both the central and state samples are merged. The NSSO in its 55th and 61st round have collected OBC data, so are a few other independent surveys such as the National Council of Applied Economic Research’s (NCAER) human development surveys, and the National Health and Family Surveys. The state specific distribution of population according to broad caste categories are presented in the following table and graphs. One notices a large disparity between states especially Kerala and West Bengal which needs further discussion.
Ways to accurately estimate the OBCs in India
There is a renewed demand from many corners, especially a segment of political leadership to collect a citizen’s caste affiliation during the 2011 census of India. The GOI in principle has agreed to collect information on caste in 2011 census; but what is not clear is as to what kind of information on caste will be collected; will it be collected during the house listing operation or during the population census.
Operational Difficulties in Collecting Caste in Census 2011: The census is undertaken in two phases. A house listing operation (Phase 1) precedes the population enumeration (phase 2) usually scheduled during months of February and March of the census years. The house listing for census 2011 is already in progress. House Listing Operation collects information on SCs & STs - item 15 in the proforma. Once can expand this question by providing an addition option ‘OBC (3) and changing code of ‘Other’ to (4). Note also that information on Scheduled Caste is collected only from Hindus, Sikhs and Buddhists and not from other religion; whereas Schedule Tribe can be from any religion. Since religion is not collected in this phase the OBC reporting will be free of divergent influences and overall this approach can work if the OBC check list is provided to enumerators in advance. But since the listing operation is already on all over India and it is too to collect caste/OBC information during the house listing operation.
According to news paper reports, it appears, that data on caste will be collected by asking a simple question “what is your cast?” during the census operations. This now can be done only in phase 2 known as Population Enumeration undertaken during March-April 2011. This kind of open question can be asked immediacy after the following questions:
Q. 7: Religion (Write name of the religion in full)
Q. 8: If Scheduled Caste, Write name of the SC from the list supplied
Q .9: If Scheduled Tribe, write name of the ST from the list supplied
Proposed Q.10: What is your Caste? _____________________
Such a question will generate a lot of caste reporting exclusive to each state and regions within state. Often a given caste is identified, pronounced and spelled differently; and sometimes same cast can assume differential status in other states. Collating such information subsequent to conclusion of Census will be a herculean effort and also cause for controversies. Therefore one needs to be clear and careful as to what kind of caste data to be collected during the population enumeration.
Therefore it is suggested that the Proposed Q.10 during enumeration phase should collect information only on ‘as to whether the individual belongs to a OBC category? This is best done if an approved list of OBCs is provided in advance. In the absence of approved OBC list, self-reported post enumeration categorization will be controversial. Yet eliciting OBC information during enumeration will have to be done as an additional question after the question on religion there can be errors due to misreporting and confounding effects. Recent debates on extension of ‘reservation’ benefits to individuals belonging to religions other than Hindus have generated anxiety and also expectations especially amongst the minorities.
Possible Contamination of Census Information : India has a long uninterrupted history of undertaking census every 10 years since the late 19th century and certainly a regular pan-Indian census since the Independence. Indian Census is respected across the world for its quality and academic content. A lot of debates and research has fed the number and type of question to be included in the ‘house listing’ and ‘population enumeration’ exercises. It is useful to note that the last time caste information was collected was during census 1931.
The concepts, definitions and questions are standardized in such a way that the inter-censal comparisons are possible. Such comparisons are the basis to evaluate a number of economic, social, educational and work/employment parameters for India and its many states and even districts. Therefore, any addition or alteration and even change in placement of a question, both in the listing and enumeration proforme can cause changes in the quality of data in other words can contaminate census information. For example, (a) the errors in self-reported SCs/STs and OBCs category can be enormous by boosting the respective population shares which can prompt increase in the quota shares. This can happen because – those not SCs/STs may get motivated to report themselves as such; so will be the case for OBCs. Since the OBC reservation debate is in its peak one can expect an extra caution amongst the OBCs to ensure reporting; while there can also be misreporting thus boosting the share of OBCs in the population. Even communities with no caste identities may innovate or identify a caste for themselves. (b) It is likely that caste question can affect the reporting of occupations. The possibility is large due to expected gains offered by the government based on caste/occupation linked targeting such as programs for ‘weavers’ and so on. There can many other distortions or contamination of data.
What can be Done? It appears the demand for caste census emerges from the need to know the accurate size of the OBC communities. Since data on the SCs and STs are regularly collected since 1951 census, there is no issue relating to these categories. Thus the focus should be on identifying correct size and share of OBCs, since the Mandal commission linked reservations are based on old data from 1931 and not so valid local level surveys. The quinnqunnel National Sample Surveys are undertaken about five years apart and they are most respected for quality and consistency of data. Current sample size is over one hundred and fifty thousand households rural and urban households. Fortunately, India also hosts independent survey research organizations such as the National Council of Applied Economic Research which can execute such surveys with ease and accuracy. Should there is a need one can devise a multi-level multi-stratum sample sizes so as to provide the estimates of the religion specific size and share of OBCs in each of the Indian state and regions within the larger states of India. Such estimates will keep the chastity of the Indian census intact while proving accurate data for devising pro-poor social policies in India.
Operational Difficulties in Collecting Caste in Census 2011: The census is undertaken in two phases. A house listing operation (Phase 1) precedes the population enumeration (phase 2) usually scheduled during months of February and March of the census years. The house listing for census 2011 is already in progress. House Listing Operation collects information on SCs & STs - item 15 in the proforma. Once can expand this question by providing an addition option ‘OBC (3) and changing code of ‘Other’ to (4). Note also that information on Scheduled Caste is collected only from Hindus, Sikhs and Buddhists and not from other religion; whereas Schedule Tribe can be from any religion. Since religion is not collected in this phase the OBC reporting will be free of divergent influences and overall this approach can work if the OBC check list is provided to enumerators in advance. But since the listing operation is already on all over India and it is too to collect caste/OBC information during the house listing operation.
According to news paper reports, it appears, that data on caste will be collected by asking a simple question “what is your cast?” during the census operations. This now can be done only in phase 2 known as Population Enumeration undertaken during March-April 2011. This kind of open question can be asked immediacy after the following questions:
Q. 7: Religion (Write name of the religion in full)
Q. 8: If Scheduled Caste, Write name of the SC from the list supplied
Q .9: If Scheduled Tribe, write name of the ST from the list supplied
Proposed Q.10: What is your Caste? _____________________
Such a question will generate a lot of caste reporting exclusive to each state and regions within state. Often a given caste is identified, pronounced and spelled differently; and sometimes same cast can assume differential status in other states. Collating such information subsequent to conclusion of Census will be a herculean effort and also cause for controversies. Therefore one needs to be clear and careful as to what kind of caste data to be collected during the population enumeration.
Therefore it is suggested that the Proposed Q.10 during enumeration phase should collect information only on ‘as to whether the individual belongs to a OBC category? This is best done if an approved list of OBCs is provided in advance. In the absence of approved OBC list, self-reported post enumeration categorization will be controversial. Yet eliciting OBC information during enumeration will have to be done as an additional question after the question on religion there can be errors due to misreporting and confounding effects. Recent debates on extension of ‘reservation’ benefits to individuals belonging to religions other than Hindus have generated anxiety and also expectations especially amongst the minorities.
Possible Contamination of Census Information : India has a long uninterrupted history of undertaking census every 10 years since the late 19th century and certainly a regular pan-Indian census since the Independence. Indian Census is respected across the world for its quality and academic content. A lot of debates and research has fed the number and type of question to be included in the ‘house listing’ and ‘population enumeration’ exercises. It is useful to note that the last time caste information was collected was during census 1931.
The concepts, definitions and questions are standardized in such a way that the inter-censal comparisons are possible. Such comparisons are the basis to evaluate a number of economic, social, educational and work/employment parameters for India and its many states and even districts. Therefore, any addition or alteration and even change in placement of a question, both in the listing and enumeration proforme can cause changes in the quality of data in other words can contaminate census information. For example, (a) the errors in self-reported SCs/STs and OBCs category can be enormous by boosting the respective population shares which can prompt increase in the quota shares. This can happen because – those not SCs/STs may get motivated to report themselves as such; so will be the case for OBCs. Since the OBC reservation debate is in its peak one can expect an extra caution amongst the OBCs to ensure reporting; while there can also be misreporting thus boosting the share of OBCs in the population. Even communities with no caste identities may innovate or identify a caste for themselves. (b) It is likely that caste question can affect the reporting of occupations. The possibility is large due to expected gains offered by the government based on caste/occupation linked targeting such as programs for ‘weavers’ and so on. There can many other distortions or contamination of data.
What can be Done? It appears the demand for caste census emerges from the need to know the accurate size of the OBC communities. Since data on the SCs and STs are regularly collected since 1951 census, there is no issue relating to these categories. Thus the focus should be on identifying correct size and share of OBCs, since the Mandal commission linked reservations are based on old data from 1931 and not so valid local level surveys. The quinnqunnel National Sample Surveys are undertaken about five years apart and they are most respected for quality and consistency of data. Current sample size is over one hundred and fifty thousand households rural and urban households. Fortunately, India also hosts independent survey research organizations such as the National Council of Applied Economic Research which can execute such surveys with ease and accuracy. Should there is a need one can devise a multi-level multi-stratum sample sizes so as to provide the estimates of the religion specific size and share of OBCs in each of the Indian state and regions within the larger states of India. Such estimates will keep the chastity of the Indian census intact while proving accurate data for devising pro-poor social policies in India.
Tuesday, April 6, 2010
Monday, April 5, 2010
NEWS Report | http://beta.thehindu.com/news/national/article381832.ece
Sachar member laments low spending on Muslims' welfare
Vidya Subrahmaniam | The Hindu | April 3, 2010
Keywords: Sachar Committee, Muslims, Ministry of Minority Affairs
Abusaleh Shariff, member-secretary of the Rajinder Sachar Committee on the status of Muslims, is angry and upset. He thinks the United Progressive Alliance government has not done enough to push the cause of Muslims' welfare.
Talking to The Hindu, Dr. Shariff said: “It is more than three years since the Committee's report established the pitiable socio-economic status of Indian Muslims. I am saddened and depressed that in all this time there has been more talk about Sachar than action.”
As a case in point, he refers to the Ministry of Minority Affairs' Minority Concentration Districts (MCDs) programme. The largest of the Ministry's schemes, the MCD programme gets the lion's share of the Ministry's budgetary allocation. In the current budget, the Ministry's overall allocation went up from Rs. 1,740 crore to Rs. 2,600 crore. The MCD programme's share correspondingly went up from Rs. 889.50 crore to Rs. 1,204.20 crore.
Dr. Shariff maintains that this increase is eyewash. “This is deceiving people” he says, because so far hardly any of the MCD amount has been spent by the States. The Ministry's own figures establish “the dismal state of affairs.” Only five States reported spending any of the MCD money. The rest did not even bother to send a progress report.
The five States in turn picked up only tiny amounts, averaging an expenditure of just 8 per cent of the funding approved for them. The total cost of MCD projects approved by the Ministry as of December 31, 2009 was Rs.1,821.50 crore. Against this, the Ministry's account books show an expenditure of only Rs. 142.40 crore. The highest MCD spender was Uttar Pradesh which lifted 14.3 per cent of the total approved cost of Rs. 582.30 crore. Haryana followed with 12.8 per cent and West Bengal with 6 per cent.
Initiated in 2007, the MCD programme identified 90 districts in 20 States for targeted focus, based on parameters of backwardness and a minority population criterion of at least 25 per cent. Most MCDs are expectedly Muslim-dominated.
Mr. Shariff accepts that a lot of government schemes suffer from underutilisation of funds. However, when underutilisation touches 92 per cent, then “I would think that the lapse is intentional.” He gives the counter example of the Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan, where the fund utilisation averages around 70 per cent.
In an interview to The Hindu in September 2009, Minority Affairs Minister Salman Khursheed lamented that his Ministry was not able to touch the lives of ordinary Muslims. To be effective, the Ministry needed to have greater powers, he said.
Vidya Subrahmaniam | The Hindu | April 3, 2010
Keywords: Sachar Committee, Muslims, Ministry of Minority Affairs
Abusaleh Shariff, member-secretary of the Rajinder Sachar Committee on the status of Muslims, is angry and upset. He thinks the United Progressive Alliance government has not done enough to push the cause of Muslims' welfare.
Talking to The Hindu, Dr. Shariff said: “It is more than three years since the Committee's report established the pitiable socio-economic status of Indian Muslims. I am saddened and depressed that in all this time there has been more talk about Sachar than action.”
As a case in point, he refers to the Ministry of Minority Affairs' Minority Concentration Districts (MCDs) programme. The largest of the Ministry's schemes, the MCD programme gets the lion's share of the Ministry's budgetary allocation. In the current budget, the Ministry's overall allocation went up from Rs. 1,740 crore to Rs. 2,600 crore. The MCD programme's share correspondingly went up from Rs. 889.50 crore to Rs. 1,204.20 crore.
Dr. Shariff maintains that this increase is eyewash. “This is deceiving people” he says, because so far hardly any of the MCD amount has been spent by the States. The Ministry's own figures establish “the dismal state of affairs.” Only five States reported spending any of the MCD money. The rest did not even bother to send a progress report.
The five States in turn picked up only tiny amounts, averaging an expenditure of just 8 per cent of the funding approved for them. The total cost of MCD projects approved by the Ministry as of December 31, 2009 was Rs.1,821.50 crore. Against this, the Ministry's account books show an expenditure of only Rs. 142.40 crore. The highest MCD spender was Uttar Pradesh which lifted 14.3 per cent of the total approved cost of Rs. 582.30 crore. Haryana followed with 12.8 per cent and West Bengal with 6 per cent.
Initiated in 2007, the MCD programme identified 90 districts in 20 States for targeted focus, based on parameters of backwardness and a minority population criterion of at least 25 per cent. Most MCDs are expectedly Muslim-dominated.
Mr. Shariff accepts that a lot of government schemes suffer from underutilisation of funds. However, when underutilisation touches 92 per cent, then “I would think that the lapse is intentional.” He gives the counter example of the Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan, where the fund utilisation averages around 70 per cent.
In an interview to The Hindu in September 2009, Minority Affairs Minister Salman Khursheed lamented that his Ministry was not able to touch the lives of ordinary Muslims. To be effective, the Ministry needed to have greater powers, he said.
Thursday, April 1, 2010
Structure of Food Crisis in Rural India
It is generally believed that since cultivation is undertaken in rural areas, the rural households do not face food stress and food price increase is not any issue. Surely, food production is a rural phenomenon but since upto one half of rural households are either land less or hold small and unproductive land, such households are subjected to sever food shortages. During the visits to rural areas in three states of Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka, it was possible to find out the barest minimum amount of income needed for a typical family to ensure food consumption (the kind of food which is normally consumed in rural areas) and meet other expenditures on minimum needs. This amount works out to be Rs. 31, 600 per annum; but a large number of rural households are unable to earn this sum, and there is a shortage ranging from Rs. 7,400 in MP, 6,400 in UP and 4,300 in Karnataka. The shortfall of Rs. 7,400 for a family of 5 members, for example, in MP is despite income accruing to the family from agriculture of Rs. 5,600, from wages of Rs. 7,500, sale of agricultural by products worth Rs. 2,000, from cattle Rs. 4,000, a total of 4,220 subsidy / cash transfers received from a number of public programs such as PDS, NREGA, ICDS, MMD and pension schemes, and also Rs.900 on average received in remittances. The multiplicity in source of income itself is a strategy to ensure adequate income receipts but the cost of living even rural areas is higher for over one third of households, if not more.
We also measured food eaten by all the family members a day before the date of visit to the households. Overall all the daily consumption of cereal per person is estimated to be 540 gm in urban and 462 gm in rural areas. As expected individuals in the working ages of 15-49 years large amounts with the exception of urban areas in UP and MP where those aged 50 + consume largest quantities. In urban areas, older men and women consume 219 grams of vegetable per capita and in rural areas all adults consume just about 162 grams. Although milk consumption is relatively high in urban areas, and amongst the older ages the amount consumed is a meagerly 75-85 ml and the average is around 55 ml in rural areas. It is only in Karnataka we found that children less than 14 year old are give relatively larger amounts of milk compared to adults which is encouraging. Further, we found that adult males who consume more, but female children consume relatively more than the boys is all states. There is no differential in consumption of food items amongst men and women in the working age group. However, again female children are found to consume more vegetables compared to the boys. It is only in case of milk that boys have better consumption compared with girls, and this can also be a reason for relatively lower intake of cereals and vegetables amongst boys.
Food Consumption a day previous to interview
by place of residence and age of individual
State All cereals (gm) All Vegetables (gm) Milk (ml)
0 to 14 15 to 49 50 + 0 to 14 15 to 49 50 + 0 to 14 15 to 49 50 +
Rural
All 347 493 462 117 163 162 61 53 71
UP 335 478 477 103 144 153 63 40 67
MP 376 587 548 111 159 151 55 56 77
Karnataka 310 396 392 155 188 178 71 64 71
Urban
All 314 487 540 137 190 219 85 75 77
UP 367 562 750 124 163 166 56 67 86
MP 373 580 635 135 176 209 60 78 78
Karnataka 292 420 407 158 218 261 98 55 55
Delhi 260 460 458 132 184 194 111 105 127
Source: Author’s estimates - food quantities are measured from 559 deprived households of UP, MP, Karnataka and Delhi
during September to November 2009.
In the following we narrate typologies which help in explaining behavioral differentials and other characteristics of residents with respect of response to food price increase. Broadly, people’s responses can be differentiated based on ‘perceptions’, ‘opportunities’, idiosyncratic shocks’, ‘social networks’ and ‘safety nets’ one experiences with.
Perception: The way quality of life is understood differ considerably between rural and urban areas, reflecting the exposure to the level of modernization, for example in urban areas which broadly vary according to size of town, and intensity and quality of public infrastructure and governance. Rural life style is sedentary and the one anchored upon contentment with limited demands if any. Such behavioral variation is both a virtue and a curse. ‘Virtue’ to the extent that it makes their limited life style manageable and perceptible desire to lead a content life; where as a ‘Curse’ when households are unable to benchmark or even understand the mechanisms to improve standard of life at a minimum or comfortable level as recognized by modern standards; for example minimum levels of schooling, basic levels of nutrition, health and hygienic conditions, housing and so on. Therefore, the food price response differs considerably as to variation in food habits and extent to which communities and households depend upon non-local markets to access culturally appropriate food products when not self-produced.
Opportunities: Large variations are noticed in terms of opportunities that the communities and households have not only for earning income but also to interact with markets. Rudimentary nature of local labor market often sustained based one exchange labor and non-monetized considerations at least in rural areas is causing labor mobility which can be characterized as migrant labor. One finds a considerable economic prosperity amongst households having at least one member as a labor migrant, but often one finds the whole families migrating out for short periods of 4-8 months, but also for much longer time periods. Most of the households in the urban periphery are migrants from rural out backs, and it appears they are pushed out of rural life both by expectations as well as economic stress, while some are able to capitalize upon their skills and education, most have fallen deeper in to poverty trap due to confrontation with urban monetized and somewhat standardized life and their inability to meet those expectations. What is clearly evident is a complex urban sociology and economy which in some places provides for a living and for a few others opportunities do not exist. Such situations are highly local but it would be possible to profile urban living standards through further research which is not common in the context of south Asia, especially India. Generally the poor both in rural and urban areas are afraid of market dependence to ensure supply of cereals and other basic food products.
Amongst the poorer rural households, average land holding is very low so is the land productivity; further they own few productive assets and lack irrigation. Over and above the drought caused during July-August 2009 have made all of such households vulnerable to food stress. The SC-families have smaller land holdings and land owned is of lower productivity which in fact was allotted by government agencies under different schemes. The net (of seeds) yield of the main crops of paddy and wheat was found to be around 6 quintals per acre, but due to draught paddy got damaged. The local wage work opportunities are far too low and wage rates range between Rs. 50 and Rs. 60/- per day of work.
Idiosyncratic Shocks: Households with deep food stress do have highly specified situations which differ as per the household situations, for example inability to sustain livestock due to sheer poverty, or inaccessibility to common property resource such as grazing lands or even lack of a member who can take care of cattle and so on. Female headed households do face difficulty in undertaking cultivation and therefore lease out land with low home grown food access which increase vulnerability. In both rural and urban areas ill-health causes extreme degree of idiosyncratic shocks causing conditions of food deficit and malnutrition. Strict adherence to cultural values in case of marriage, birth and death related ceremonies can push households into penury and in many cases irreversible thus exposing such households for extreme food stress.
Social Networks: Informal social networks are some of the most durable extensions of India family values which provide considerable amounts of safety nets. Rural areas across India are in advantageous situations where social networks do work in support to sustain food smoothening; but the situation in the urban peripheries is different due to unclear linkages, rather a breakdown of social networks. Lack of social environment in towns can be attributed to peripheral societies build upon migration often from rural areas. But another fact which accentuates the urban-anonymity and lack of networks is the fact that households in specified urban localities face situations which are equally stressful thus making social networks redundant. Such differential social typologies are crucial for withstanding extreme food related stress in India.
Safety nets: Often it is argued that since urban areas by definition have higher concentration of social, economic and market institutions the urban households do not require targeted safety nets. We do find that the rural areas have a relatively better coverage of safety nets of various kinds although; the efficacy and utilization vary between villages and also different types of households. But one finds absence of such safety net schemes in urban locales. On the other hand urban areas do have concentration of both social and physical infrastructure managed both by the public and private initiatives; but the poor living in fringes in towns and cities have limited access to them due to lack of their integration into the urban system. Often such families do not hold for example PDS cards, nor will they be listed as eligible beneficiaries for social protection schemes due to unclear domiciliary conditions. Such a situation was clearly noticeable in case of Delhi, but also in other larger towns/cities such as Kanpur in UP and Kolar in Karnataka.
Any reform in the public polices in India are affected not so much as to what and why but HOW to identify the right household, group of households, villages and communities. The above profiling of the poor will help policy makers to devise better methodologies for targeting the poverty alleviation programs.
We also measured food eaten by all the family members a day before the date of visit to the households. Overall all the daily consumption of cereal per person is estimated to be 540 gm in urban and 462 gm in rural areas. As expected individuals in the working ages of 15-49 years large amounts with the exception of urban areas in UP and MP where those aged 50 + consume largest quantities. In urban areas, older men and women consume 219 grams of vegetable per capita and in rural areas all adults consume just about 162 grams. Although milk consumption is relatively high in urban areas, and amongst the older ages the amount consumed is a meagerly 75-85 ml and the average is around 55 ml in rural areas. It is only in Karnataka we found that children less than 14 year old are give relatively larger amounts of milk compared to adults which is encouraging. Further, we found that adult males who consume more, but female children consume relatively more than the boys is all states. There is no differential in consumption of food items amongst men and women in the working age group. However, again female children are found to consume more vegetables compared to the boys. It is only in case of milk that boys have better consumption compared with girls, and this can also be a reason for relatively lower intake of cereals and vegetables amongst boys.
Food Consumption a day previous to interview
by place of residence and age of individual
State All cereals (gm) All Vegetables (gm) Milk (ml)
0 to 14 15 to 49 50 + 0 to 14 15 to 49 50 + 0 to 14 15 to 49 50 +
Rural
All 347 493 462 117 163 162 61 53 71
UP 335 478 477 103 144 153 63 40 67
MP 376 587 548 111 159 151 55 56 77
Karnataka 310 396 392 155 188 178 71 64 71
Urban
All 314 487 540 137 190 219 85 75 77
UP 367 562 750 124 163 166 56 67 86
MP 373 580 635 135 176 209 60 78 78
Karnataka 292 420 407 158 218 261 98 55 55
Delhi 260 460 458 132 184 194 111 105 127
Source: Author’s estimates - food quantities are measured from 559 deprived households of UP, MP, Karnataka and Delhi
during September to November 2009.
In the following we narrate typologies which help in explaining behavioral differentials and other characteristics of residents with respect of response to food price increase. Broadly, people’s responses can be differentiated based on ‘perceptions’, ‘opportunities’, idiosyncratic shocks’, ‘social networks’ and ‘safety nets’ one experiences with.
Perception: The way quality of life is understood differ considerably between rural and urban areas, reflecting the exposure to the level of modernization, for example in urban areas which broadly vary according to size of town, and intensity and quality of public infrastructure and governance. Rural life style is sedentary and the one anchored upon contentment with limited demands if any. Such behavioral variation is both a virtue and a curse. ‘Virtue’ to the extent that it makes their limited life style manageable and perceptible desire to lead a content life; where as a ‘Curse’ when households are unable to benchmark or even understand the mechanisms to improve standard of life at a minimum or comfortable level as recognized by modern standards; for example minimum levels of schooling, basic levels of nutrition, health and hygienic conditions, housing and so on. Therefore, the food price response differs considerably as to variation in food habits and extent to which communities and households depend upon non-local markets to access culturally appropriate food products when not self-produced.
Opportunities: Large variations are noticed in terms of opportunities that the communities and households have not only for earning income but also to interact with markets. Rudimentary nature of local labor market often sustained based one exchange labor and non-monetized considerations at least in rural areas is causing labor mobility which can be characterized as migrant labor. One finds a considerable economic prosperity amongst households having at least one member as a labor migrant, but often one finds the whole families migrating out for short periods of 4-8 months, but also for much longer time periods. Most of the households in the urban periphery are migrants from rural out backs, and it appears they are pushed out of rural life both by expectations as well as economic stress, while some are able to capitalize upon their skills and education, most have fallen deeper in to poverty trap due to confrontation with urban monetized and somewhat standardized life and their inability to meet those expectations. What is clearly evident is a complex urban sociology and economy which in some places provides for a living and for a few others opportunities do not exist. Such situations are highly local but it would be possible to profile urban living standards through further research which is not common in the context of south Asia, especially India. Generally the poor both in rural and urban areas are afraid of market dependence to ensure supply of cereals and other basic food products.
Amongst the poorer rural households, average land holding is very low so is the land productivity; further they own few productive assets and lack irrigation. Over and above the drought caused during July-August 2009 have made all of such households vulnerable to food stress. The SC-families have smaller land holdings and land owned is of lower productivity which in fact was allotted by government agencies under different schemes. The net (of seeds) yield of the main crops of paddy and wheat was found to be around 6 quintals per acre, but due to draught paddy got damaged. The local wage work opportunities are far too low and wage rates range between Rs. 50 and Rs. 60/- per day of work.
Idiosyncratic Shocks: Households with deep food stress do have highly specified situations which differ as per the household situations, for example inability to sustain livestock due to sheer poverty, or inaccessibility to common property resource such as grazing lands or even lack of a member who can take care of cattle and so on. Female headed households do face difficulty in undertaking cultivation and therefore lease out land with low home grown food access which increase vulnerability. In both rural and urban areas ill-health causes extreme degree of idiosyncratic shocks causing conditions of food deficit and malnutrition. Strict adherence to cultural values in case of marriage, birth and death related ceremonies can push households into penury and in many cases irreversible thus exposing such households for extreme food stress.
Social Networks: Informal social networks are some of the most durable extensions of India family values which provide considerable amounts of safety nets. Rural areas across India are in advantageous situations where social networks do work in support to sustain food smoothening; but the situation in the urban peripheries is different due to unclear linkages, rather a breakdown of social networks. Lack of social environment in towns can be attributed to peripheral societies build upon migration often from rural areas. But another fact which accentuates the urban-anonymity and lack of networks is the fact that households in specified urban localities face situations which are equally stressful thus making social networks redundant. Such differential social typologies are crucial for withstanding extreme food related stress in India.
Safety nets: Often it is argued that since urban areas by definition have higher concentration of social, economic and market institutions the urban households do not require targeted safety nets. We do find that the rural areas have a relatively better coverage of safety nets of various kinds although; the efficacy and utilization vary between villages and also different types of households. But one finds absence of such safety net schemes in urban locales. On the other hand urban areas do have concentration of both social and physical infrastructure managed both by the public and private initiatives; but the poor living in fringes in towns and cities have limited access to them due to lack of their integration into the urban system. Often such families do not hold for example PDS cards, nor will they be listed as eligible beneficiaries for social protection schemes due to unclear domiciliary conditions. Such a situation was clearly noticeable in case of Delhi, but also in other larger towns/cities such as Kanpur in UP and Kolar in Karnataka.
Any reform in the public polices in India are affected not so much as to what and why but HOW to identify the right household, group of households, villages and communities. The above profiling of the poor will help policy makers to devise better methodologies for targeting the poverty alleviation programs.
Saturday, February 27, 2010
Food prices and coping mechanism in India
Debates abound, in the recent months, as to the steep increase in inflation in India and a substantial contribution from the primary food articles. This obviously is a matter of great concern to the government, the civil society and consumers alike. Since food is consumed on a daily basis and most households undertake daily purchases, it is imperative to find out how poorer households cope with high food inflation and sustain their food consumption.
In the following we investigate: (1) whether the food inflation is accurately captured through the WPI- inflation monitoring; and (2) how do the households in rural and urban areas cope, so as to smoothen food consumption.
Prices: Inflation which is benchmarked on the wholesale price index underestimates the impact of food prices due to low weightage attached to the group of food products, for example, the food group as a whole has a weight of just over a quarter, and food grains have only a 5 % weight. In reality (estimated from household survey) these proportions are 51% and 19.2% in rural and 41% and 16% in urban areas. Therefore, food price increase is not adequately factored in inflation figures provided by government agencies. Given this situation, if the government claims that food price increase indeed is one of the factors for high inflation, it should mean an unprecedented and very high price increase in food articles indeed.
Further citizens normally take newspaper reporting seriously to make judgments about the food inflation. Often the retail market prices collected from urban neighborhoods do not correctly reflect prices due to large discrepancy with the wholesale market prices of the same food items. Further, for food items other than vegetables and fruits it is essential to take a short to medium (as opposed to immediate) term view by tracking prices say on a weekly, monthly and seasonal basis. This article gleams over monthly data for over 25 food items from 78 towns and cities spread all over India since April 2006 to October 2009 period. The size of the town/city is a good proxy for size of market as well as proximity to the source of supply, normally the rural areas. An interesting pattern emerges. Small town having less than one lakh population are the cheapest for unprocessed food items such as whole wheat, paddy and rice, unprocessed milk and so on. The processed food items such as wheat atta, polished rice and packed milk are found to be priced high in large towns above 25 lakh population. But the contrast is in wheat and atta. While wheat prices are least in small towns, wheat atta is priced highest in small towns compared with the larger ones. The wheat flour is priced between 40% to 50% higher than the whole wheat prices in small towns. Other processed food items also cost exorbitantly high in small towns and rural areas. However, towns with 1-5 lakh population are the cheapest for both rice and wheat in India suggesting that they maximize gains from nearness to source of supply, as well as possible scale economics in business and also because of location of processing industries. Rice price increases as size of town/city increase and thus affects the poor living in larger towns and cities the most. The price of pulses and sugar has recorded unprecedented increase during the 2009-10 periods and affects both rural and urban areas equally. There is a broad based increase in prices of food items in India and the momentum of this increase has built up during 2007-8 and is continuing during the 2010.
Coping Mechanisms: There are noteworthy rural-urban consumption differentials in India – rural households consume more of cereals so is the case for poorer households. Consumption of quality and value added foods are high in urban areas and amongst the richer households. Price wield large and dominant impact even on consumption of rice and wheat, generally considered price inelastic. Therefore, self production of these cereals has considerably strong impact on sustaining consumption. It is instructive to note that 36 % of wheat and 32% of rice requirement are met through self-grown agriculture. Another 11% of wheat and 14% of rice requirement is met by the Public Distribution System. Thus even in the rural areas one half of the all wheat and rice requirement is met by open market purchases. As expected 92% of wheat and 84 per cent of rice requirement of urban households is met by open markets, and only about 5 % wheat and 11% rice requirement is met of PDS in urban area.
Relatively poorer households try to depend less on markets but they fall short of home grown food at least in rural areas, consequently their dependence upon the PDS supply is large. One finds that PDS has reached rural areas and there is also a great demand for supplies. However, the PDS supply is irregular and insufficient due to state specific bureaucratic failure, leakage and large exclusion and inclusion errors in targeting. Urban areas show unfair distribution of BPL cards compared with rural parts although the mismatch is considerable in both place of residences. Further the targeted PDS program is poor in states where poverty is high such as Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Chhattisgarh.
It is essential to find out the share of expenditure on cereals to total food so as to find out how relative prices impact the poor. Cereal shares are about 35% in rural and 27 % in urban areas; but a disturbing fact is that relatively poor spend substantial higher shares on cereals compared to relatively richer. Therefore, any cereal price increase is going to impact the poor the most. Therefore, it is absolutely essential to keep a check on unusually high price rise of cereals from the consumers’ point of view, yet it is imperative that incentives are built so as to directly benefit the farmers who will sustain cultivation of cereals. Another aspect which provides deeper understanding is the fact that bottom 20 % (poorest) households spend almost all their disposable income in urban and 72 % higher than the disposable income in rural areas on food. This suggests that there is an urgent need to build food security for the rural poor much more than the urban poor although at the outset it appears that it is the urban poor who gets affected by the food price inflation.
In conclusion, it is essential to emphasize, that there has to be a prudent price management scheme for both wheat and rice in India. Further it is imperative that appropriate amount of income transfer is effected either through the PDS or food / cash vouchers schemes. The key is in the ability of the state to identify the poor dispassionately and through a systematic methodology. Keeping a close watch on market price of food items must become inherent part of public policy. It appears India is not yet amenable for free market in food products although experiments in crafting exclusive agricultural markets for exports and strengthening supply chains to organized and supermarkets can continue.
In the following we investigate: (1) whether the food inflation is accurately captured through the WPI- inflation monitoring; and (2) how do the households in rural and urban areas cope, so as to smoothen food consumption.
Prices: Inflation which is benchmarked on the wholesale price index underestimates the impact of food prices due to low weightage attached to the group of food products, for example, the food group as a whole has a weight of just over a quarter, and food grains have only a 5 % weight. In reality (estimated from household survey) these proportions are 51% and 19.2% in rural and 41% and 16% in urban areas. Therefore, food price increase is not adequately factored in inflation figures provided by government agencies. Given this situation, if the government claims that food price increase indeed is one of the factors for high inflation, it should mean an unprecedented and very high price increase in food articles indeed.
Further citizens normally take newspaper reporting seriously to make judgments about the food inflation. Often the retail market prices collected from urban neighborhoods do not correctly reflect prices due to large discrepancy with the wholesale market prices of the same food items. Further, for food items other than vegetables and fruits it is essential to take a short to medium (as opposed to immediate) term view by tracking prices say on a weekly, monthly and seasonal basis. This article gleams over monthly data for over 25 food items from 78 towns and cities spread all over India since April 2006 to October 2009 period. The size of the town/city is a good proxy for size of market as well as proximity to the source of supply, normally the rural areas. An interesting pattern emerges. Small town having less than one lakh population are the cheapest for unprocessed food items such as whole wheat, paddy and rice, unprocessed milk and so on. The processed food items such as wheat atta, polished rice and packed milk are found to be priced high in large towns above 25 lakh population. But the contrast is in wheat and atta. While wheat prices are least in small towns, wheat atta is priced highest in small towns compared with the larger ones. The wheat flour is priced between 40% to 50% higher than the whole wheat prices in small towns. Other processed food items also cost exorbitantly high in small towns and rural areas. However, towns with 1-5 lakh population are the cheapest for both rice and wheat in India suggesting that they maximize gains from nearness to source of supply, as well as possible scale economics in business and also because of location of processing industries. Rice price increases as size of town/city increase and thus affects the poor living in larger towns and cities the most. The price of pulses and sugar has recorded unprecedented increase during the 2009-10 periods and affects both rural and urban areas equally. There is a broad based increase in prices of food items in India and the momentum of this increase has built up during 2007-8 and is continuing during the 2010.
Coping Mechanisms: There are noteworthy rural-urban consumption differentials in India – rural households consume more of cereals so is the case for poorer households. Consumption of quality and value added foods are high in urban areas and amongst the richer households. Price wield large and dominant impact even on consumption of rice and wheat, generally considered price inelastic. Therefore, self production of these cereals has considerably strong impact on sustaining consumption. It is instructive to note that 36 % of wheat and 32% of rice requirement are met through self-grown agriculture. Another 11% of wheat and 14% of rice requirement is met by the Public Distribution System. Thus even in the rural areas one half of the all wheat and rice requirement is met by open market purchases. As expected 92% of wheat and 84 per cent of rice requirement of urban households is met by open markets, and only about 5 % wheat and 11% rice requirement is met of PDS in urban area.
Relatively poorer households try to depend less on markets but they fall short of home grown food at least in rural areas, consequently their dependence upon the PDS supply is large. One finds that PDS has reached rural areas and there is also a great demand for supplies. However, the PDS supply is irregular and insufficient due to state specific bureaucratic failure, leakage and large exclusion and inclusion errors in targeting. Urban areas show unfair distribution of BPL cards compared with rural parts although the mismatch is considerable in both place of residences. Further the targeted PDS program is poor in states where poverty is high such as Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Chhattisgarh.
It is essential to find out the share of expenditure on cereals to total food so as to find out how relative prices impact the poor. Cereal shares are about 35% in rural and 27 % in urban areas; but a disturbing fact is that relatively poor spend substantial higher shares on cereals compared to relatively richer. Therefore, any cereal price increase is going to impact the poor the most. Therefore, it is absolutely essential to keep a check on unusually high price rise of cereals from the consumers’ point of view, yet it is imperative that incentives are built so as to directly benefit the farmers who will sustain cultivation of cereals. Another aspect which provides deeper understanding is the fact that bottom 20 % (poorest) households spend almost all their disposable income in urban and 72 % higher than the disposable income in rural areas on food. This suggests that there is an urgent need to build food security for the rural poor much more than the urban poor although at the outset it appears that it is the urban poor who gets affected by the food price inflation.
In conclusion, it is essential to emphasize, that there has to be a prudent price management scheme for both wheat and rice in India. Further it is imperative that appropriate amount of income transfer is effected either through the PDS or food / cash vouchers schemes. The key is in the ability of the state to identify the poor dispassionately and through a systematic methodology. Keeping a close watch on market price of food items must become inherent part of public policy. It appears India is not yet amenable for free market in food products although experiments in crafting exclusive agricultural markets for exports and strengthening supply chains to organized and supermarkets can continue.
Monday, January 25, 2010
Friday, January 15, 2010
Poverty Reduction and Poverty Creation in India
Do they happen concurrently and for what reason?
Summary of a recent paper entitled 'The Irrelevance of National Strategies:
Rural Poverty Creation and Reduction in States of India' jointly written with
Anirudh Krishna of the Duke University, USA
There are only a few controversial and somewhat puzzling economic dimensions which are academically unresolved and subject to serious debates. While there is recognition about the speed and direction of growth scenario suggesting India’s arrival on the global economic scene, what is puzzling at the same time is not only the continued prevalence of poverty but also a possible increase over the past decade, at least in the rural hinterland. Poverty measurement is an unsettled issue, both conceptually and methodologically. In fact, since poverty is a process as well as an outcome; many come out of it while others may be falling into it. The net effect of these two parallel processes is a proportion commonly identified as the ’head count ratio’, but these ratios hide the fundamental dynamism that characterizes poverty in practice. Note that the most recent poverty re-estimates using a supposedly refined methodology by a Government of India expert group has also missed this crucial dynamism (Report of the Expert Group to Review the Methodology for Estimation of Poverty, 2009. New Delhi: Government of India, Planning Commission). Studies carried out by one of the authors of this article, in parts of Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, and Rajasthan have, however, helped bring to light the essential fact of poverty dynamics: which is simultaneously both created and reduced. Some households fall into poverty, becoming the new poor; other households concurrently escape from poverty.
Following up on these insights, we examined, for the first time in India, a nationally-representative panel data set for more than 13,000 households studied in 1993-94 and re-interviewed in 2004-05. We found that while 18.2 percent of the rural population moved out of poverty, another 22.1 per cent fell into it over this twelve-year period. This net increase of four percentage points was found to have a considerable variation across states and regions. In states, such as Himachal Pradesh, Kerala, Rajasthan and West Bengal, where more people moved out of poverty than fell into poverty, there has been an overall decline in rural poverty. Conversely, rural poverty increased in Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Gujarat, Haryana, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Orissa, Tamil Nadu, and Uttar Pradesh, where descents into poverty were more numerous than escapes from poverty.
States – as well as regions within states – differ from one another. Some have high descent rates but low escape rates; in a few other states, both descent and escape rates are low. Different combinations of poverty policies will be required in states that are characterized by different patterns of escaping poverty and falling into poverty. A typology emerging from our analysis is presented below:
Consider the upper-left cell which lists regions that have most successfully reduced poverty over the 12-year reference period, because a high escape rate went together with a low descent rate. Two small states, Kerala and Himachal Pradesh, and another group of states (Assam and the Northeast) fall within this high-performing group. A poor person in India is best-off living within some region of this cell: the probability is highest that her circumstances will improve over time. For a contrasting situation, consider the bottom-right cell, characterized by low escape rates and high descent rates. Compared to other regions in India, the prospect for poor people in these regions is bleak; chances for further impoverishment are the highest. Future efforts in this region will do well to concentrate, first, on lowering the high rate of descent, and second, on ramping up the low escape rate.
A more nuanced prognosis emerges for regions included within the off-diagonal cells. Consider, for example, the two regions belonging to the bottom-left cell (Karnataka- Inland Southern, and Madhya Pradesh-Vindhya). A high escape rate within these regions has been compromised by a concurrently high descent rate. Future poverty reduction efforts in these regions should focus primarily on reducing the high rate of descent into poverty. It makes greater sense to raise the escape rate only after the high risk of falling into poverty has been brought under control. The opposite policy prescription seems appropriate for regions of the top-right cell. In Maharashtra-Eastern and Haryana-Western, additional resources should be deployed primarily for raising poor people’s chances of escape.
Thus, different policy mixes, combining different elements of prevention (against descents into poverty) and support (for escaping poverty), are required in diverse regions and states. A uniform national poverty policy will not be effective for entire states, far less for the entire country.
A Typology of Poverty of States and Regions in India
Escape Rate
High (43.0-21.3) Medium (21.2-15.9) Low (15.8-4.4)
Descent Rate Low (18.7-9.1) Assam & Northeast AP-Coastal Maharashtra -Eastern
Karnataka - Coastal, Ghats, & Inland Eastern Punjab-Northern Haryana-Western
Kerala AP-Inland Southern
WB-Himalayan
WB-Central Plains
Himachal Pradesh
Rajasthan-Western
Rajasthan-North-Eastern
Bihar-Jharkhand
West Bengal-Eastern Plains
Medium (24.7-18.8) Gujarat-Plains Northern UP-Western MP-South Western
TN-Coastal & Coastal Northern TN-Southern Orissa-Coastal & Southern
Rajasthan-Southern & South-Eastern UP-Uttaranchal Gujarat-Saurashtra & Dry areas
Bihar-Central Maharashtra-Inland Western & Coastal
MP-Chhattisgarh
Punjab-Southern
MP-South
Gujarat-Eastern & Plains Southern
Haryana-Eastern
High (47.4-24.8) Karnataka -Inland Southern UP-Eastern & Central Orissa-Northern
MP-Vindhya Maharashtra-Inland Eastern Maharashtra-Inland Central
Bihar-Northern TN-Inland
Karnataka-Inland Northern AP-Inland Northern
MP-Malwa
Maharashtra-Inland Northern
MP-Northern
AP-South Western
MP-Central
What kinds of policies and programs will help prevent descents into poverty? And what kinds of programs and policies are required to promote escapes from poverty? We examined the escapes and the descents that have occurred in rural India between 1993 and 2005, and we identified the factors that mattered for each of these trends. A few factors are involved with both escapes and descents, but there is also another group of factors that affect only escape or only descent.
Factors significantly associated both with escape and descent : Age of household head, household size, household composition (reflected by the variable “male advantage”), households with telephones (land lines or mobile), change in the share of rural non-farm income (RNFY), remittances, women’s media exposure, and loan taken in last five years.
Factors associated with escape but not with descent: A few other factors influence escapes but do not matter much for descents. These factors include being a member of ‘minority other than Muslim’, presence of adult son during the previous period (1993), and that the household was located within 5 km of nearest town with the availability of bus stop. Sickness within households had an adverse effect.
Factors associated with descent but not with escape: A household belonging to SC, ST or OBC faced a significantly greater risk of descent into poverty, whereas having the head of the household educated to secondary level or higher reduced the risk of descent. Possession of land and other assets reduced the risk of descent. Significantly, such rural assets were not germane to escapes from poverty.
States with high and low growth rates have variously experienced high and low rates of escape and descent. No clear correlation exists at the level of states and regions between high growth rates and higher poverty reduction. Thus, to claim that “growth of aggregate consumption/income is a sufficient condition for poverty reduction,” as one influential government document does, is hardly an appropriate or adequate policy prescription. Rather than waiting for growth to occur and work its putative magic, direct actions to reduce poverty are necessary.
Action along two fronts is simultaneously required: descents into poverty must be prevented using context-specific measures even as escapes from poverty are promoted vigorously. Different escape and descent rates characterize diverse states and separate regions within states. The reasons that matter for escape and descent also differ considerably across and within states. Considering only the aggregate results obscures these important differences. Diverse policy designs are required in order to deal with these different trends. Any uniform national policy does not, therefore, represent the best use of resources. State- and region-specific threats and opportunities must be separately identified and directly addressed.
Summary of a recent paper entitled 'The Irrelevance of National Strategies:
Rural Poverty Creation and Reduction in States of India' jointly written with
Anirudh Krishna of the Duke University, USA
There are only a few controversial and somewhat puzzling economic dimensions which are academically unresolved and subject to serious debates. While there is recognition about the speed and direction of growth scenario suggesting India’s arrival on the global economic scene, what is puzzling at the same time is not only the continued prevalence of poverty but also a possible increase over the past decade, at least in the rural hinterland. Poverty measurement is an unsettled issue, both conceptually and methodologically. In fact, since poverty is a process as well as an outcome; many come out of it while others may be falling into it. The net effect of these two parallel processes is a proportion commonly identified as the ’head count ratio’, but these ratios hide the fundamental dynamism that characterizes poverty in practice. Note that the most recent poverty re-estimates using a supposedly refined methodology by a Government of India expert group has also missed this crucial dynamism (Report of the Expert Group to Review the Methodology for Estimation of Poverty, 2009. New Delhi: Government of India, Planning Commission). Studies carried out by one of the authors of this article, in parts of Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, and Rajasthan have, however, helped bring to light the essential fact of poverty dynamics: which is simultaneously both created and reduced. Some households fall into poverty, becoming the new poor; other households concurrently escape from poverty.
Following up on these insights, we examined, for the first time in India, a nationally-representative panel data set for more than 13,000 households studied in 1993-94 and re-interviewed in 2004-05. We found that while 18.2 percent of the rural population moved out of poverty, another 22.1 per cent fell into it over this twelve-year period. This net increase of four percentage points was found to have a considerable variation across states and regions. In states, such as Himachal Pradesh, Kerala, Rajasthan and West Bengal, where more people moved out of poverty than fell into poverty, there has been an overall decline in rural poverty. Conversely, rural poverty increased in Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Gujarat, Haryana, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Orissa, Tamil Nadu, and Uttar Pradesh, where descents into poverty were more numerous than escapes from poverty.
States – as well as regions within states – differ from one another. Some have high descent rates but low escape rates; in a few other states, both descent and escape rates are low. Different combinations of poverty policies will be required in states that are characterized by different patterns of escaping poverty and falling into poverty. A typology emerging from our analysis is presented below:
Consider the upper-left cell which lists regions that have most successfully reduced poverty over the 12-year reference period, because a high escape rate went together with a low descent rate. Two small states, Kerala and Himachal Pradesh, and another group of states (Assam and the Northeast) fall within this high-performing group. A poor person in India is best-off living within some region of this cell: the probability is highest that her circumstances will improve over time. For a contrasting situation, consider the bottom-right cell, characterized by low escape rates and high descent rates. Compared to other regions in India, the prospect for poor people in these regions is bleak; chances for further impoverishment are the highest. Future efforts in this region will do well to concentrate, first, on lowering the high rate of descent, and second, on ramping up the low escape rate.
A more nuanced prognosis emerges for regions included within the off-diagonal cells. Consider, for example, the two regions belonging to the bottom-left cell (Karnataka- Inland Southern, and Madhya Pradesh-Vindhya). A high escape rate within these regions has been compromised by a concurrently high descent rate. Future poverty reduction efforts in these regions should focus primarily on reducing the high rate of descent into poverty. It makes greater sense to raise the escape rate only after the high risk of falling into poverty has been brought under control. The opposite policy prescription seems appropriate for regions of the top-right cell. In Maharashtra-Eastern and Haryana-Western, additional resources should be deployed primarily for raising poor people’s chances of escape.
Thus, different policy mixes, combining different elements of prevention (against descents into poverty) and support (for escaping poverty), are required in diverse regions and states. A uniform national poverty policy will not be effective for entire states, far less for the entire country.
A Typology of Poverty of States and Regions in India
Escape Rate
High (43.0-21.3) Medium (21.2-15.9) Low (15.8-4.4)
Descent Rate Low (18.7-9.1) Assam & Northeast AP-Coastal Maharashtra -Eastern
Karnataka - Coastal, Ghats, & Inland Eastern Punjab-Northern Haryana-Western
Kerala AP-Inland Southern
WB-Himalayan
WB-Central Plains
Himachal Pradesh
Rajasthan-Western
Rajasthan-North-Eastern
Bihar-Jharkhand
West Bengal-Eastern Plains
Medium (24.7-18.8) Gujarat-Plains Northern UP-Western MP-South Western
TN-Coastal & Coastal Northern TN-Southern Orissa-Coastal & Southern
Rajasthan-Southern & South-Eastern UP-Uttaranchal Gujarat-Saurashtra & Dry areas
Bihar-Central Maharashtra-Inland Western & Coastal
MP-Chhattisgarh
Punjab-Southern
MP-South
Gujarat-Eastern & Plains Southern
Haryana-Eastern
High (47.4-24.8) Karnataka -Inland Southern UP-Eastern & Central Orissa-Northern
MP-Vindhya Maharashtra-Inland Eastern Maharashtra-Inland Central
Bihar-Northern TN-Inland
Karnataka-Inland Northern AP-Inland Northern
MP-Malwa
Maharashtra-Inland Northern
MP-Northern
AP-South Western
MP-Central
What kinds of policies and programs will help prevent descents into poverty? And what kinds of programs and policies are required to promote escapes from poverty? We examined the escapes and the descents that have occurred in rural India between 1993 and 2005, and we identified the factors that mattered for each of these trends. A few factors are involved with both escapes and descents, but there is also another group of factors that affect only escape or only descent.
Factors significantly associated both with escape and descent : Age of household head, household size, household composition (reflected by the variable “male advantage”), households with telephones (land lines or mobile), change in the share of rural non-farm income (RNFY), remittances, women’s media exposure, and loan taken in last five years.
Factors associated with escape but not with descent: A few other factors influence escapes but do not matter much for descents. These factors include being a member of ‘minority other than Muslim’, presence of adult son during the previous period (1993), and that the household was located within 5 km of nearest town with the availability of bus stop. Sickness within households had an adverse effect.
Factors associated with descent but not with escape: A household belonging to SC, ST or OBC faced a significantly greater risk of descent into poverty, whereas having the head of the household educated to secondary level or higher reduced the risk of descent. Possession of land and other assets reduced the risk of descent. Significantly, such rural assets were not germane to escapes from poverty.
States with high and low growth rates have variously experienced high and low rates of escape and descent. No clear correlation exists at the level of states and regions between high growth rates and higher poverty reduction. Thus, to claim that “growth of aggregate consumption/income is a sufficient condition for poverty reduction,” as one influential government document does, is hardly an appropriate or adequate policy prescription. Rather than waiting for growth to occur and work its putative magic, direct actions to reduce poverty are necessary.
Action along two fronts is simultaneously required: descents into poverty must be prevented using context-specific measures even as escapes from poverty are promoted vigorously. Different escape and descent rates characterize diverse states and separate regions within states. The reasons that matter for escape and descent also differ considerably across and within states. Considering only the aggregate results obscures these important differences. Diverse policy designs are required in order to deal with these different trends. Any uniform national policy does not, therefore, represent the best use of resources. State- and region-specific threats and opportunities must be separately identified and directly addressed.
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Publications of Interest
Recent Publications:
‘Assessment of Outreach and Benefits of National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme of India’ accepted for publication in Indian Journal of Labor Economics, 52 (2): June 2009.
On Shelves
Handbook of Muslims in India: Empirical and Policy Perspectives; Edited jointly with Rakesh Basant; New Delhi: Oxford University Press (ISBN13: 9780198062059 | ISBN10: 0198062052) December 2009.
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